Model of prediction with fuzzy time series method has ability to capture the pattern of past data to predict the fu ture of data does not need a complicated system, making it easier to use. The research aims to built prediction system using model of heuristic time invariant fuzzy time series and multiple linear regression to predict profit and analysis of variables that affect profit. Profit forecasting aims to determine the company's prospects in the future in order to remain exist in doing its business. The variables that use in the modelling are profit as the dependent variable, and sales, cost of goods sold, general and administrative expenses, selling and marketing expenses and interest income as the indepent variables. Profit forecasting modelling begins by defining universe of discourse and interval actual data of profit, then determine fuzzy set and actual data fuzzified. Furthermore, fuzzy logical relationship and fuzzy logical relationships group to fuzzified data. The prediction process consist of two prediction phase there are training phase aimed to determine trend predictor and testing phase to determine prediction results. By using 24 profit data samples resulted prediction error by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error is 11,64% and added 13 data for testing obtained prediction error is 22,27%. In analysis of variables that affect profit is known that sales variable most effect on profit than other variables with a regression coefficient 0.976.Keywords : Profit forecast; heuristic time invariant fuzzy time series; multiple linear regression AbstrakModel prediksi dengan metode fuzzy time series mempunyai kemampuan untuk dapat menangkap pola data yang telah lalu untuk memprediksi data yang akan datang tidak membutuhkan sistem yang rumit, sehingga lebih mudah untuk digunakan. Penelitian ini bertujuan membuat system predisi menggunakan model heuristic time invariant fuzzy time series dan regresi linear berganda untuk prediksi laba dan analisis variabel yang mempengaruhinya. Prediksi laba bertujuan untuk mengetahui prospek perusahaan di masa mendatang supaya tetap eksis menjalankan usahanya. Variabel yang digunakan adalah laba, penjualan, beban pokok penjualan, beban umum dan administrasi, beban penjualan dan pemasaran dan penghasilan bunga yang dimasukkan langsung kedalam sistem. Pembuatan model prediksi laba dimulai dengan menentukan semesta pembicaraan dan interval dari data aktual laba, kemudian menentukan himpunan fuzzy dan fuzzifikasi data aktual. Selanjutnya dilakukan hubungan logika fuzzy dan pengelompokan hubungan logika fuzzy terhadap data hasil fuzzifikasi. Proses prediksi terbagi atas dua tahapan yaitu tahap training yang bertujuan untuk menentukan prediktor tren, dan tahap testing untuk menentukan hasil prediksi. Dengan input data menggunakan 24 data sampel laba diperoleh error prediksi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error sebesar 11,64%, den dengan 13 data laba untuk testing diperoleh error prediksi sebesar 22,27%. Dalam analisis variabel yang mempengaruhi laba diketahui bah...
The estimated enrollments of new student is required in the academic planning of a higher education institution. That can be done by forecasting using the fuzzy time series (FTS) technique. FTS method is an artificial intelligence computation technique that can capture patterns from previous data to predict future event. The implementation of this method is easier to used. In this study, the Adaptive model to FTS is applied to forecast new student, where the interval division is done twice (twice-divided) and weighting is carried out for the prediction process. The prediction results obtained a deviation value (error) of 11.66% which is measured using MAPE. These results indicate that this model can be used for long-term predictions even with a limited sample of data.
Songket weaving craft of Palembang City has been the center of the easy ikat weaving craft since ancient times and has become the hallmark of the city of Palembang. Currently the production process used by the songket weaving craft is still very simple, most of the work process in making this woven fabric is done manually. This causes the production process to take a relatively long time compared to the manufacture of fabrics in general. The yarn spinning device is modified in such a way that the yarn spinner can work with the help of electronic components. The yarn spinner is given a DC motor which has previously been programmed using the L298N Motor Driver so that it can rotate as needed and is connected to the Node MCU ESP8266 module so that it can be connected to an Android Smartphone which is used as a remote control to run the yarn spinning device. The ESP8266 Node MCU functions as a command provider for each component, the Gearbox DC Motor functions as the main driver for the coils, the L298N Motor Driver functions as a DC Motor controller, and the MG966R Servo Motor functions as a thread guide to the left and right so that the results of the thread roll look neat. The results of testing how many spools of yarn are in a fast IoT state in a period of 5-60 minutes at a time of 60 minutes get very fast results compared to manual.
Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya adalah perguruan tinggi negeri yang menyelenggarakan program pendidikan vokasi dalam berbagai rumpun ilmu pengetahuan dan/atau teknologi. Senat merupakan organ Polsri sebagai unsur penyusun kebijakan yang menjalankan fungsi penetapan dan pertimbangan pelaksanaan kebijakan akademik. Dalam kegiatan Senat proses kearsipan yang sampai saat ini belum terdokumentasi dengan baik, sehingga proses administrasi surat yang ada pada sekretariat Senat masih berjalan secara manual serta masih menimbulkan berbagai masalah seperti proses pencarian arsip surat yang memakan waktu cukup lama. Pendokumentasian arsip berbasis web akan digunakan untuk pencarian data dan dokumen sehingga siapapun dapat mengunduh file dokumen arsip yang telah diunggah oleh admin. Penelitian ini, konsep dan perancangan sistem dilakukan dengan pengumpulan data dari proses administrasi surat, desain sistem menggunakan Data Flow Diagram (DFD) dan Entitiy Relationship Diagram (ERD) dan sampai dengan implementasi system.
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