ResumenHistorias laborales incompletas y altamente fragmentadas amenazan con dejar a muchos contribuyentes de los regímenes de pensiones de América Latina sin la pensión mínima garantizada, o incluso sin acceso a la pensión (jubilación) común. En el presente estudio, se propone una metodología para evaluar este riesgo, identificar los grupos vulnerables y estudiar los posibles factores determinantes de las historias de contribuciones, utilizando la información de los registros de historia de laboral de las instituciones de seguridad social. Aplicando esta metodología sobre los registros de la principal institución de seguridad social del Uruguay, el Banco de Previsión Social, se obtiene que la mayoría de los contribuyentes de esta institución podría no cumplir con el mínimo de años de cotización requeridos actualmente para acceder a una pensión (jubilación) común al llegar a las edades habituales de retiro.Palabras clave: densidad de cotizaciones, historia laboral. Clasificación JEL: H55, J14, J26.
AbstractIncomplete and highly fragmented work histories threaten to leave many contributors of the pension schemes in Latin America without the minimum pension guarantee or even without access to the ordinary pension. We propose a methodology to assess this risk, identify vulnerable groups and study potential determinants of the history of contributions using information from the work history records of the social security institutions. We apply this methodology to the largest social security institution of Uruguay, the Banco de Previsión Social, and show that the majority of contributors to this institution might not comply with the minimum number of years of contribution that is currently required to access an ordinary pension when they reach the retirement age.
We propose alternative methods to project pension rights and implement them in Chile and Uruguay and partially in Argentina. We use incomplete work histories databases from the social security administrations to project entire lifetime work histories. We first fit linear probability and duration models of the contribution status and dynamic linear models of the income level. We then run Monte Carlo simulations to project work histories and compute pension rights. According to our results, significant swathes of the population would not access to fundamental pension benefits at age 65, if the current eligibility rules were strictly enforced.
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