Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.

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Despite global commitments to forest restoration, evidence of the pathways through which restoration creates social and ecological benefits remains limited. The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence to generate insights on the relationship between forest cover change and key provisioning ecosystem services and reforestation pathways. In Southern Ethiopia, three zones along a gradient of decreasing land cover complexity and tree cover were examined. The land cover change was assessed using satellite remote sensing and complemented ground‐based tree inventory. Perceptions of land cover and ecosystem services change and farmer responses were evaluated through three Participatory Rural Appraisals and eight Focus Group Discussions. Since the 1970s, a landscape shift from a forest‐grassland to a cropland mosaic was associated with increased food production, improved food security, and higher incomes. However, this shift also coincided with reductions in livestock, construction materials, fuelwood and water availability, prompting reforestation efforts designed to recover some of these lost ecosystem services. In particular, some households established Eucalyptus woodlots and encouraged natural regeneration. Natural trees, Eucalyptus woodlots, Ensete plantations (a type of plantain), and grasslands were positively associated with homestead proximity; thus, homestead establishment resulting from population increase in this predominately agricultural landscape appeared to foster a viable forest restoration pathway—that is, 'more people, more trees'. This is a reforestation pathway not previously described in the literature. A return to a more diverse agricultural landscape mosaic provided more secure and diversified income sources along with better provisioning of construction materials, fuelwood, and higher livestock numbers.

Context Understanding the consequences of changes in land use and land cover is among the greatest challenges in sustainability science, yet key themes related to land cover change are often left out of sustainability assessment tools. Because sustainability teaching is expanding at a rapid rate, incorporation of interdisciplinary, rigorous, quantitative tools to distinguish sustainable and unsustainable landscape change are needed. Objective As a heuristic exercise, we contrast and synthesize two approaches to quantifying sustainability using a case study of palm oil and tropical deforestation in Borneo, Indonesia. Methods First, we use Markovian land cover change analysis (from 2000 to 2010) to estimate changes in forest cover, project these rates of change into the near future, and estimate changes in carbon stocks due to palm oil conversion. Second, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions from a typical Indonesian palm oil biodiesel plantation using a life cycle assessment approach (LCA). Results These two approaches show conflicting assessments for the carbon footprint of palm biodiesel: a sustainable endeavor when short-term global warming potential is evaluated yet highly unsustainable when rates of forest loss are measured. Furthermore, accounting for carbon that incorporated prior land cover dramatically altered sustainability assessments. Conclusions Thus, integration of these two approaches reveals the importance of including both historic and future land cover changes into sustainability assessments. This synthesis demonstrates the importance of using a plurality of approaches from different disciplines when teaching sustainability, and highlights the unique role that landscape ecological approaches can play in sustainability assessments such as LCA.