Purpose: To assess the excess relative risk in terms of 1 Sv on the basis of materials on the incidence of malignant neoplasms of workers in the nuclear industry – liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, as well as part of workers who worked or continue to work with sources of ionizing radiation. Material and methods: The data base of the Industry Register of persons exposed to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident (ORF) was used in the work. Methods of cohort analysis of the accumulated disease incidence were used, based on Poisson regression and Cox regression. Estimates of the ERR at 1 Sv were calculated using both the traditional scheme using the AMFIT module and the modified formula proposed by Paretzke. Results: It is shown that in some cases, the risk estimates obtained by the modified formula are more realistic, in other cases both estimates have similar values. Conclusion: Analysis of the incidence of solid neoplasms in the liquidator cohort showed: 1. At the dose range < 200 mSv, point estimates of relative risk indicate that there is no dose-associated risk. 2. In the low-dose range for risk assessment, a modified Poisson regression approach that is free of control specifics should be used. 3. The validity of a dose response is characterized by the risks obtained using a dose of occupational exposure. 4. An important issue is the calculation of the risk of radiation-caused diseases with the use of the total dose received by an individual from all types of radiation.
ФГБУ ГНЦ ФМБЦ им. А.И. Бурназяна ФМБА России, Москва В руководящих документах по радиационной безопасности приводятся требования к расчёту риска возникновения радиационно-обусловленных заболеваний, основанных на применении доз от всех видов радиационного облучения. Однако отсутствие регистров, отвечающих этим требованиям, не позволяет получить корректные результаты. Целью данного исследования является анализ различия риска заболевания злокачественными новообразованиями (ЗНО) при использовании доз различных видов воздействия ионизирующего излучения на челове-ка. Работа выполнена на информационной базе данных Отраслевого регистра лиц, подверг-шихся воздействию радиации в результате аварии на Чернобыльской АЭС, -работников предприятий и организаций Госкорпорации «Росатом», принимавших участие в ликвидации последствий аварии на ЧАЭС. В расчёт риска включены дозы внешнего профессионального облучения и дозы, полученные при работе в 30-км зоне ЧАЭС. В исследовании показано, что применение доз от двух видов воздействия ионизирующего излучения на человека приводит к получению различных уровней риска заболевания ЗНО. Авторы пришли к выводу, что включение в расчёт риска только дозы одного вида облучения приводит к получению оши-бочных результатов в анализе возникновения радиационно-ассоциированных болезней, что, в свою очередь, делает радиационную безопасность небезопасной.
Purpose: Assessment of the health of persons working under the influence of certain adverse environmental factors. Material and methods: The work includes all male liquidators registered in the Sectoral Register of persons exposed to radiation as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. This is about 18.5 thousand people. More than half of them have a verified dose load, all of which were exposed to radiation while working in the 30-km zone of the Chernobyl NPP. At this stage of the study, estimates were obtained for the corresponding retirement intensity function for two cohorts of liquidators – 1986 and subsequent years of work.In order to assess the dynamics of the age-specific mortality of the liquidators, the data for the years 2000 and 2014 are considered. It did not make sense to take earlier years due to the relatively young age of the liquidators at that point in time. The second estimate is related to exactly 15 years – half the entire period of observation of the register. 2014 turned out to be more preferable compared to 2015 due to the fact that it was in 2014 that a significant number of people were deregistered and thus dropped out of consideration. Empirical analysis methods are used – survival curves are considered (data such as the lifetime) both in terms of morbidity and mortality. And a comparison is made of the curves obtained in different rank groups. For fitting curves, risk functions of various parametric distributions constructed using the likelihood function can be used. The main problem of this analysis is a large number of censored data at this stage of the study. Results: The death rate of the liquidators differs significantly from the death rate of the male population of the Russian Federation, however, this difference decreases with time, primarily due to a decrease in the death rate of the population in the Russian Federation. If the trends in the dynamics of age-specific mortality in the Russian Federation correspond to global standards, which corresponds to a positive dynamic, the dynamics of the age-specific mortality of the liquidators is paradoxical, which primarily concerns the cohort of liquidators of 1986. The weather smoothed mortality of the liquidators of 1986 exceeds that calculated for all the liquidators of the register, which may indicate the presence of some additional factors determining the health of this group of persons. By the years 2007–2010, a significant increase in the slope of the mortality curve is observed as a sign of the cohort selection, relegation of the weaker ones first. Using the Kaplan –Meier method, survival curves for cohorts were constructed, and the presence of significant differences in their mortality was shown.
Purpose: Estimate of the excess relative risk of malignant neoplasm disease (MND) in nuclear industry workers, participants in the elimination of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, taking into account the doses of various types of irradiation. Material and methods: An epidemiological experiment was conducted in which the personal data of the information base of the Industry Register of persons exposed to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident, the doses of occupational exposure, and tabular data on the dose of natural exposure, presented in the reports on the radiation situation in populated areas ESKID, No. 4-DOZ) were used. Results: It is shown that the risk assessment of the disease in the Chernobyl accident liquidators, obtained with the use of doses of different types of exposure, has different risk indicators (ERR at 1 Sv: the Chernobyl NPP radiation dose is 0.13, the ChNPP + professional dose is 1.13 and the ChNPP dose + professional + natural – 0.56). Conclusions: – Using any part of the total radiation dose of a person to calculate the risk of dose-induced diseases, we will get incorrect results is unknown how far from the truth. – For a reliable assessment of the risk of the disease, an overall dose is required from a person from all types of radiation, which is required by the radiation safety directives.
Purpose: In an article prepared on the basis of the conclusion of the Russian Scientific Commission on Radiological Protection (RSCRP) at the Department of Medical Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Assessment of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident after 35 years according to the National Radiation and Epidemiological Register" (NRER), the main conclusions of the large-scale radiation-epidemiological studies carried out. Material and methods: The work uses information NRER – liquidators of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident and the Branch Register of FMBA of Russia – liquidators. When assessing the excess relative risk of malignant neoplasms, the EPICURE. Results: The current status of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Register, which is currently functioning within the framework of the Law of the Russian Federation of 30.12.2012 No. 329-FZ “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation in terms of ensuring that changes in the health status of certain categories of citizens are taken into account exposed to radiation". For the first time in an integral form, the article presents the medical radiological consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant for the population of Russia. It was found that an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer due to incorporated exposure to 131I was found in a cohort of children and adolescents (28 856 people) who received radiation doses of more than 200 mGy in 1986. There was no increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among the adult population. Analysis of the incidence of solid cancers in the territories of the Bryansk, Kaluga, Tula and Oryol regions contaminated with radionuclides did not reveal an increase in the frequency of this pathology for children and adults. It is shown that in the cohort of liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, who received radiation doses of more than 150 mGy (35 303 people), an increase in the incidence of leukemia during the first 11 years after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and solid cancers was revealed in comparison with the spontaneous level. Conclusions: The article points out serious limitations associated with a high degree of uncertainty in the received personal dosimetric data on liquidators in 1986–1987. and the need to use the total dose from all types of radiation (professional, emergency, medical, natural) to calculate the radiation risk. RSCRP emphasizes the high urgency of continuing work on reducing the uncertainty of dosimetry data and assessing the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident based on a comprehensive analysis of the NRER data.
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