[1] Using NASA's A-Train satellite measurements, we evaluate the accuracy of cloud water content (CWC) and water vapor mixing ratio (H 2 O) outputs from 19 climate models submitted to the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and assess improvements relative to their counterparts for the earlier CMIP3. We find more than half of the models show improvements from CMIP3 to CMIP5 in simulating column-integrated cloud amount, while changes in water vapor simulation are insignificant. For the 19 CMIP5 models, the model spreads and their differences from the observations are larger in the upper troposphere (UT) than in the lower or middle troposphere (L/MT). The modeled mean CWCs over tropical oceans range from $3% to $15Â of the observations in the UT and 40% to 2Â of the observations in the L/MT. For modeled H 2 Os, the mean values over tropical oceans range from $1% to 2Â of the observations in the UT and within 10% of the observations in the L/MT. The spatial distributions of clouds at 215 hPa are relatively well-correlated with observations, noticeably better than those for the L/MT clouds. Although both water vapor and clouds are better simulated in the L/MT than in the UT, there is no apparent correlation between the model biases in clouds and water vapor. Numerical scores are used to compare different model performances in regards to spatial mean, variance and distribution of CWC and H 2 O over tropical oceans. Model performances at each pressure level are ranked according to the average of all the relevant scores for that level.Citation: Jiang, J. H., et al. (2012), Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA "A-Train" satellite observations,

[1] The validation of version 2.2 (v2.2) H 2 O measurements from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura MLS) on the Aura satellite are presented.Results from comparisons made with Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Vaisala radiosondes, frost point hygrometer, and WB57 aircraft hygrometers are presented. Comparisons with the Aura MLS v1.5 H 2 O, Goddard global modeling and assimilation office Earth Observing System analyses (GEOS-5) are also discussed. For H 2 O mixing ratios less than 500 ppmv, the MLS v2.2 has an accuracy better than 25% between 316 and 147 hPa. The precision is 65% at 316 hPa that reduces to 25% at 147 hPa. This performance is better than expected from MLS measurement systematic error analyses. MLS overestimates H 2 O for mixing ratios greater than 500 ppmv which is consistent with a scaling error in either the calibrated or calculated MLS radiances. The validation of the accuracy of MLS v2.2 H 2 O from 121 to 83 hPa which is expected to be better than 15% cannot be confirmed at this time because of large disagreements among the hygrometers used in the AVE campaigns. The precision of the v2.2 H 2 O from 121 to 83 hPa is 10-20%. The vertical resolution is 1.5-3.5 km depending on height. The horizontal resolution is 210 Â 7 km 2 along and perpendicular to the Aura orbit track, respectively. Relative humidity is calculated from H 2 O and temperature. The precision, accuracy, and spatial resolution are worse than for H 2 O.Citation: Read, W. G., et al. (2007), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric H 2 O and relative humidity with respect to ice validation,

Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean͞Central-American region.climate change ͉ tropical precipitation ͉ drought

.[1] Climate model global warming simulations predict large regional changes in tropical rainfall, including regions of drought. Qualitatively similar changes occur during El Niño interannual variability. Using an intermediate climate model, we have identified a mechanism that creates regional reductions in precipitation at the margins of convection zones during warming. In this ''upped-ante mechanism'', a warm troposphere increases the value of surface boundary layer moisture required for convection to occur. In regions of plentiful moisture supply, moisture simply rises to maintain precipitation, but this increases the moisture gradient relative to neighboring subsidence regions. Reductions in rainfall then result for those margins of convection zones that have strong inflow of air from the subsidence regions and less frequently meet the increased ''ante'' for convection. In simulations analyzed here, this new mechanism is the leading cause of tropical drought in the global warming case and is dominant in certain El Niñ o drought regions.

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not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor. MILLÁN ET AL.

Teleconnection mechanisms in relative descent zones are examined using the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM). The regions of anomalous descent neighboring the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean during the 1997/98 El Niño are used as an example, and results are verified for three other El Niño warm events (1982, 1987, and 1991). By analyzing the moisture and moist static energy budgets over these regions, it is found that the physical processes responsible for the descent anomalies are different for each region. Anomalous dry advection is the dominant mechanism for the reduced precipitation to the north of the El Niño warm region. On the other hand, the relative descent to the south of the El Niño warm SSTs is caused by reduced surface wind speed and reduced air-sea contrast and resulting weaker than normal evaporation. Budget analysis based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project atmospheric general circulation model simulations is consistent with the QTCM results. Radiative cooling associated with the warming of tropospheric temperature is relatively small, on the order of a few watts per square meter. The traditional assumption that compensating subsidence is caused by radiative cooling due to increased tropospheric temperature thus does not apply in this context. An experiment to test this by suppressing the radiative cooling due to temperature anomalies showed little impact on the descent anomalies. Thus radiative cooling is not even an initiator of descent anomalies. Instead, relative descent tends to occur in particular regions where other larger cooling or drying tendencies act. Reductions in convective heating and cloud radiative heating behave like a reduction in effective static stability, enhancing the descent anomalies. The complexity of the mechanisms for the descent anomalies may be responsible for the difficulty of descent zone simulation and forecast in general circulation models.

It has long been recognized that differences in climate model-simulated cloud feedbacks are a primary source of uncertainties for the model-predicted surface temperature change induced by increasing greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Large-scale circulation broadly determines when and where clouds form and how they evolve. However, the linkage between large-scale circulation change and cloud radiative effect (CRE) change under global warming has not been thoroughly studied. By analyzing 15 climate models, we show that the change of the Hadley Circulation exhibits meridionally varying weakening and strengthening structures, physically consistent with the cloud changes in distinct cloud regimes. The regions that experience a weakening (strengthening) of the zonal-mean circulation account for 54% (46%) of the multimodel-mean top-of-atmosphere (TOA) CRE change integrated over 45°S-40°N. The simulated Hadley Circulation structure changes per degree of surface warming differ greatly between the models, and the intermodel spread in the Hadley Circulation change is well correlated with the intermodel spread in the TOA CRE change. This correlation underscores the close interactions between large-scale circulation and clouds and suggests that the uncertainties of cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity reside in the intimate coupling between large-scale circulation and clouds. New model performance metrics proposed in this work, which emphasize how models reproduce satellite-observed spatial variations of zonal-mean cloud fraction and relative humidity associated with the Hadley Circulation, indicate that the models closer to the satellite observations tend to have equilibrium climate sensitivity higher than the multimodel mean.