Abstract. The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche, principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are (1) to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the Patagonian Andes and (2) to highlight the potential of Nothofagus pumilio tree-ring Correspondence to: A. Casteller (casteller@lab.cricyt.edu.ar) records to reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of the Andes.
Earlier works on numerical modelling are analysed. Anderson and Haff (1991) proposed a model using the “splash” function which was defined for cohesionless sand. The Uematsu and others (1989, 1991) and Liston and others (1993,1994) approaches are based on fluid-mechanics conservation laws where the snow is transported and diffused by the air flow. These models consider the saltation layer as a boundary condition.For the flow, and for the suspension, we adopt the same model as that of Uematsu and Liston. For mass exchange between the flow and snow surface, we have developed an erosion–deposition model where mass exchange is defined in relation to flow turbulence, threshold-friction velocity and snow concentration. Our snow-erosion model was calibrated using Takeuchi's(1980) field measurements. The deposition model was tested by comparing numerical results with wind-tunnel ones, for sawdust-accumulation windward and leeward of a solid snow fence with a bottom gap. The numerical results obtained are close to the experimental results. The main results of the various sensitivity experiments are: the leeward accumulation is very sensitive to the ratio (u*/u*t) (it appears for (u*/u*t) close to 1 and disappears for (u*/u*t) > 1.2), the global accumulation produced by the fence increases as (u*/u*t) decreases and the back reaction of particles on turbulence extends slightly the windward accumulation.
Abstract. During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches.To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range.By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen.In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.
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