POEMS syndrome (polyneuropathy, organomegaly, endocrinopathy, monoclonal gammopathy and skin changes) is a multisystem disorder with a good long-term prognosis. In its dozens of clinical features, those with independent prognostic value are still not well characterized. We retrospectively included 362 patients with newly diagnosed POEMS syndrome at our institute from 2000 to 2015. On the basis of a randomized sample splitting, we first identified four baseline clinical variables, including age >50 years (hazards ratio (HR) 4.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-11.76, P=0.009), pulmonary hypertension (HR 3.99, 95% CI 1.44-11.04, P=0.008), pleural effusion (HR 3.81, 95% CI 1.23-11.79, P=0.02) and estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m (HR 8.25, 95% CI 2.18-31.25, P=0.002), associated with inferior overall survival in the derivation cohort, with the use of multivariate Cox regression model. These factors were incorporated together to develop a prognostic nomogram. Concordance index calculation (0.727, 95% CI 0.601-0.853, P=0.018) and calibration curve plotting demonstrated its significant predictive and discriminatory capacity in the validation cohort. This nomogram could be a useful and convenient tool in clinical practice to evaluate individualized prognosis in patients with newly diagnosed POEMS syndrome.

POEMS syndrome (polyneuropathy, organomegaly, endocrinopathy, monoclonal gammopathy and skin changes) is a rare plasma cell dyscrasia sometimes treated with a haematopoietic cell autotransplant. We analyzed data from 138 subjects with newly diagnosed POEMS syndrome receiving a autotransplant at our center. Thirty-two subjects with severe end-organ dysfunction ineligible for immediate autotransplant received pretransplant therapy, which made a subsequent autotransplant feasible. Pretransplant therapy resulted in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) remissions in 15 (47%). Thirty-three transplant recipients (24%) had early posttransplant complications. Risk factors for these complications identified through multivariate analysis included age >50 years (odds ratio (OR) 2.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-7.14; P=0.033), time from symptom onset to transplant >5 years (OR 4.71, 95% CI 1.10-20.18; P=0.037) and pleural effusion (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.26-9.12; P=0.016). Subjects receiving pretransplant therapy had fewer early complications than those who did not (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.71; P=0.015), especially in subjects with a VEGF remission (OR 0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.49; P=0.010). Autotransplants resulted in hematological remission in 60 (50%), VEGF remissions in 76 (72%) and improvements in other organ functions (65-90%). The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival were 76% (95% CI 64-84%) and 94% (95% CI 87-97%), respectively. Hematological (5-year PFS 83 vs 66%, P=0.008), VEGF (5-year PFS 79 vs 57%, P=0.021) remissions and especially both (5-year PFS 95 vs 61%, P=0.004) were associated with better PFS.

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