[1] In this paper we present flow and travel time ensemble statistics based on a new simulation methodology, the adaptive Fup Monte Carlo method (AFMCM). As a benchmark case, we considered two-dimensional steady flow in a rectangular domain characterized by multi-Gaussian heterogeneity structure with an isotropic exponential correlation and lnK variance s Y 2 up to 8. Advective transport is investigated using the travel time framework where Lagrangian variables (e.g., velocity, transverse displacement, or travel time) depend on space rather than on time. We find that Eulerian and Lagrangian velocity distributions diverge for increasing lnK variance due to enhanced channeling. Transverse displacement is a nonnormal for all s Y 2 and control planes close to the injection area, but after xI Y = 20 was found to be nearly normal even for high s Y 2 . Travel time distribution deviates from the Fickian model for large lnK variance and exhibits increasing skewness and a power law tail for large lnK variance, the slope of which decreases for increasing distance from the source; no anomalous features are found. Second moment of advective transport is analyzed with respect to the covariance of two Lagrangian velocity variables: slowness and slope which are directly related to the travel time and transverse displacement variance, which are subsequently related to the longitudinal and transverse dispersion. We provide simple estimators for the Eulerian velocity variance, travel time variance, slowness, and longitudinal dispersivity as a practical contribution of this analysis. Both two-parameter models considered (the advection-dispersion equation and the lognormal model) provide relatively poor representations of the initial part of the travel time probability density function in highly heterogeneous porous media. We identify the need for further theoretical and experimental scrutiny of early arrival times, and the need for computing higher-order moments for a more accurate characterization of the travel time probability density function. A brief discussion is presented on the challenges and extensions for which AFMCM is suggested as a suitable approach.Citation: Gotovac, H., V. Cvetkovic, and R. Andricevic (2009), Flow and travel time statistics in highly heterogeneous porous media, Water Resour. Res., 45, W07402,

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Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two ''proxy'' non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two-and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that ''i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii. . . . the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting.'' I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.

[1] In this paper, we study the influence of high log-conductivity variance ð 2 Y Þ and localscale dispersion on the first two concentration moments as well as on higher-order moments, skewness, and kurtosis, in a 2-D heterogeneous aquifer. Three different heterogeneity structures are considered, defined with one and the same global isotropic Gaussian variogram. The three structures differ in terms of spatial connectivity patterns at extreme log-conductivity values. Our numerical approach to simulate contaminant transport through heterogeneous porous media is based on the Lagrangian framework with a reverse tracking formulation. Advection and local-scale dispersion are two competing and controlling mechanisms, with a relative ratio defined by the Peclet number (Pe); hydraulic log-conductivity variance 2 Y in the simulations is assumed to be one or eight. The term local-scale dispersion is used as a combined effect of molecular diffusion and mechanical dispersion. Uncertainty of the concentration field is quantified by the second-order moment, or the coefficient of variation (CV C ) as a function of the sampling position along a centerline, Peclet number, and 2 Y , as well as by higher-order moments, i.e., skewness and kurtosis. The parameter 2 Y shows a strong influence on the concentration statistics, while the three different structures have a minor impact in the case of low heterogeneity. The results also indicate that for 2 Y ¼ 8, the influence of local-scale dispersion is significant after five integral scales (I Y ) from the source for the connected (CN) field, while in case of a disconnected field, the local-scale dispersion effect is observed after 20I Y from the source. In the case of unit 2 Y , local-scale dispersion acts very slowly affecting concentration uncertainty at distances higher than 20I Y from the source. Our inspection of Monte Carlo concentration skewness and kurtosis with the ones obtained from the Beta distribution show the discrepancies for high 2 Y and CN log-conductivity structure.Citation: Srzic, V., V. Cvetkovic, R. Andricevic, and H. Gotovac (2013), Impact of aquifer heterogeneity structure and local-scale dispersion on solute concentration uncertainty, Water Resour.

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A novel numerical model for groundwater flow in karst aquifers is presented. A discrete-continuum (hybrid) approach, in which a three-dimensional matrix flow is coupled with a one-dimensional conduit flow, was used. The laminar flow in the karst matrix is described by a variably saturated flow equation to account for important hydrodynamic effects in both the saturated and unsaturated zones. Turbulent conduit flow for both free surface and pressurized flow conditions was captured via the noninertia wave equation, whereas the coupling of two flow domains was established through an exchange term proportional to head differences. The novel numerical approach based on Fup basis functions and control-volume formulation enabled us to obtain smooth and locally conservative numerical solutions. Due to its similarity to the isogeometric analysis concept (IGA), we labeled it as control-volume isogeometric analysis (CV-IGA). Since realistic verification of the karst flow models is an extremely difficult task, the particular contribution of this work is the construction of a specially designed 3D physical model ( dimensions: 5.66 × 2.95 × 2.00 m) in order to verify the developed numerical model under controlled laboratory conditions. Heterogeneous porous material was used to simulate the karst matrix, and perforated pipes were used as karst conduits. The model was able to capture many flow characteristics, such as the interaction between the matrix and conduit, rainfall infiltration through the unsaturated zone, direct recharge through sinkholes, and both free surface and pressurized flow in conduits. Two different flow experiments are presented, and comparison with numerical results confirmed the validity of the developed karst flow model under complex laboratory conditions.