Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, this study assesses the possible influence of climate change in the upstream region of the Yangtze River on droughts in the future 30 years. Long-term daily soil moisture content were simulated by VIC model at a 50 km × 50 km resolution from 1951 to 2013. Regional historical drought events were then recognized based on soil moisture anomaly percentage index and validated with field data. Five relatively independent representative global circulation models were selected and the outputs of them were downscaled temporally and spatially as the inputs of VIC model for daily soil moisture content simulations both in the period of 1971-2000 for the present-day climate and in the period of 2021-2050 for the future. The results show that the projected annual mean temperature is likely to increase from 1.4 • C to 1.8 • C. The projected change in mean annual precipitation could be increased slightly by 0.6% to 1.3%, but the trend of precipitation change in summer and autumn might be opposite of that. Comparing the drought characteristics values recognized in 1971-2000, seven to eight additional regional drought events are likely to happen in 2021-2050. Drought duration and drought intensity are also likely to extend for 18 d to 25 d and increase by 1.2% to 6.2%, respectively. But, drought area could decrease slightly by 1.3% to 2.7% on average. These changes in drought characteristics values suggest that regional drought could become more severely prolonged and frequent in future.
This study optimized the slope and slope length factor (LS) and crop management factor (P) of the RUSLE model and then introduced the gravity centre model to analyze the spatial-temporal variation patterns of soil erosion in Yellow River Basin from a new perspective. Results showed that: (1) The improved model of RUSLE with optimized factors of LS and P had better applicability in Yellow River Basin; (2) The average erosion intensity was 2777.5 t/a, which belonged to moderate erosion. The soil erosion intensity of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall trend of increasing firstly (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and then decreasing (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015).(3) During 1990-2015, the gravity centre of soil erosion moved to the southwest, indicating that the increment and increasing rate of soil erosion in the southwest parts of the Yellow River Basin were greater than that in the northeast parts. (4) The intensity of soil erosion aggravated with the increasing slope. The sandy soil, chestnut soil, light-grey calcium soil and fluvo aquic soil had severe erosion intensity due to the regional climate and their own physical-chemical structure. The woodland and shrubbery land were more susceptible to soil erosion.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.