[1] Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution. Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world's most important species, being not only primary producers, but also habitat-forming species, and thus fundamental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution. Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temperatureinduced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas. We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where centurylong measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year, which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress. Citation: Yamano, H., K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura (2011), Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04601,

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Abstract.Coral reef islands are amongst the most vulnerable environments on Earth to climate change because they are low lying and largely constructed from unconsolidated sediments that can be readily reworked by waves and currents. These sediments derive entirely from surrounding coral reef and reef flat environments and are thus highly sensitive to ecological transitions that may modify reef community composition and productivity. How such modificationsdriven by anthropogenic disturbances and on-going and projected climatic and environmental change -will impact reef island sediment supply and geomorphic stability remains a critical but poorly resolved question. Here we review the unique ecological -geomorphological linkages that underpin this question and, using different scenarios of environmental change for which reef sediment production responses can be projected, explore the likely resilience of different island types. In general, sand-dominated islands are likely to be less resilient than those dominated by rubble grade material. However, because different islands typically have different dominant sediment constituents (usually either coral, benthic foraminifera or Halimeda) and because these respond differently to individual ecological disturbances, island resilience is likely to be highly variable. Islands composed of coral sands are likely to undergo major morphological change under most near-future ecological change scenarios, whilst those dominated by Halimeda may be more resilient. Islands composed predominantly of benthic foraminifera (a common state through the Pacific region) are likely to exhibit varying degrees of resilience depending upon the precise combination of ecological disturbances faced. The study demonstrates the critical need for further research bridging the ecological-geomorphological divide in order to understand: 1) sediment production responses to different ecological and environmental change scenarios; and 2) dependant landform vulnerability.

Organic carbon (OC) stored in the sediments of seagrass meadows has been considered a globally significant OC reservoir. However, the sparsity and regional bias of studies on long-term OC accumulation in coastal sediments have limited reliable estimation of the capacity of seagrass meadows as a global OC sink. We evaluated the amount and accumulation rate of OC in sediment of seagrass meadows and adjacent areas in East and Southeast Asia. In temperate sites, the average OC concentration in the top 30 cm of sediment was higher in seagrass meadows (780-1080 μmol g . Carbon isotope mass balancing suggested that the contribution of seagrass-derived carbon to OC stored in sediments was often relatively minor (temperate: 10-40%; subtropical: 35-82%; tropical: 4-34%) and correlated to the habitat type, being particularly low in estuarine habitats. Stock of OC in the top meter of sediment of all the studied meadows ranged from 38 to 120 Mg ha À1 . The sediment accumulation rates were estimated by radiocarbon dating of six selected cores (0.32-1.34 mm yr À1). The long-term OC accumulation rates calculated from the sediment accumulation rate and the top 30 cm average OC concentration for the seagrass meadows (24-101 kg ha À1 yr À1 ) were considerably lower than the OC accumulation rates previously reported for Mediterranean Posidonia oceanica meadows (580 kg ha À1 yr À1 on average). Current estimates for the global carbon sink capacity of seagrass meadows, which rely largely on Mediterranean studies, may be considerable overestimations.

Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950-2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species' effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.

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[1] Monitoring seawater CO 2 for a full year with seasonal observations of community metabolism in Ishigaki Island, Japan, revealed seasonal variation and anomalous values owing to the bleaching event in 1998. The daily average pCO 2 showed a seasonal pattern on an annual scale, 280 to 320 matm in winter and 360 to 400 matm in summer, which was determined primarily by the seasonal change in seawater temperature. By contrast, the range in the diel variation in pCO 2 , 400 to 500 matm in summer 200 to 300 matm in winter, was attributed to the seasonal variation in community metabolism: Gross primary production (P g ) and respiration (R) were high in summer and low in winter. During the 1998 bleaching event, although P g and R increased, community excess organic production (E) decreased by three quarters compared with the same month in 1999, when the coral community showed high recovery. This change in metabolism led to large diel range and increased average value of pCO 2 levels in the seawater on the reef flat. The decrease in the range and increase in the average value of pCO 2 were observed by monitoring the Palau barrier reef flat, where overall mortality of corals occurred after the bleaching. All the metabolic parameters, P g , R, E and calcification (G) were reduced by half after the bleaching, which increased the average pCO 2 value by 10 matm and decreased its diel range from 200-400 matm to 100-200 matm. Bleaching and resultant mortality of coral reefs led to degradation of their metabolic performance, and thus resulted in the loss of their active interaction with the carbon cycle.

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