We examine the effect of the increase in violence that Mexico experienced after launching an aggressive campaign against drug-trafficking organizations on immigration into the U.S. We instrument for violence using electoral cycles, and consider two channels through which violence impacts migration: local and transit violence. Violence at the municipality of residence increased migration. Conversely, violence on the route to the U.S. deterred individuals from migrating.Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that between 2007 and 2012, local and transit violence had an overall positive effect on migration. Violence was responsible for a 1.53 percentage point increase in the migration rate.
Does interior enforcement selectively deter Mexican migration? Our study shows that more aggressive enforcement increases the likelihood of having immigrants with US work experience and with jobs secured in the United States before their migration. We also look at whether having employment may be associated with lower crime incidence and shorter detention periods among immigrants. We find that employment decreases the likelihood of observing immigrants committing serious crimes and on the length of immigrant detention. By attracting quality workers, enforcement might decrease crime incidence, along with the length and costs of detention of removable immigrants in the United States.
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