Drug Violence and Migration Flows

Abstract

We examine the effect of the increase in violence that Mexico experienced after launching an aggressive campaign against drug-trafficking organizations on immigration into the U.S. We instrument for violence using electoral cycles, and consider two channels through which violence impacts migration: local and transit violence. Violence at the municipality of residence increased migration. Conversely, violence on the route to the U.S. deterred individuals from migrating.Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that between 2007 and 2012, local and transit violence had an overall positive effect on migration. Violence was responsible for a 1.53 percentage point increase in the migration rate.

The Impact of Violence During the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States

“…In contrast, there was no migration response in municipalities that had a conflict with zero casualties. This result is in line with recent literature arguing that living in a violent context makes life shorter and less predictable (Aburto et al, 2023), which pushes individuals to move to places where the returns to human and physical capital are greater in the short-and long-run (Becker, Mukand and Yotzov, 2022;Orozco-Aleman and Gonzalez-Lozano, 2018). To provide further evidence on the treatment channel, we use alternative violence metrics, including the length of the event and information on whether the winner left or remained in the area where the event occurred.…”

Mexican Violence Displaces People, Discourages International Migration, and Shrinks Highway Network Connections

“…Several studies have also debated whether violence increased or decreased non-transit international emigration (Basu and Pearlman 2017;Daniele et al 2023;Orozco-Aleman and Gonzalez-Lozano 2018). The evidence is mixed.…”

“…A third approach has instead examined international emigration from Mexico to the US. Although total migration from Mexico to the US has decreased significantly since 2007, some studies show that municipalities with higher homicide rates increased migration to the US (Daniele et al 2023;Orozco-Aleman and Gonzalez-Lozano 2018;Rios Contreras 2014). In contrast, other studies find that municipalities with higher violence levels sent fewer people abroad during the same period, possibly due to the high migration costs (Basu and Pearlman 2017).…”

A machine learning–based generalized approach for predicting unauthorized immigration flow considering dynamic border security nexus

“…Based on an extensive literature review, the macrolevel exogenous factors consist of indicators related to economy (Angelucci, 2012; Massey et al., 2014, 2016; Nawrotzki & DeWaard, 2016; Owen & Wesselbaum, 2020; Quijada & Sierra, 2019; Roberts et al., 2018), occupation (Angelucci, 2012; Contreras, 2014; Massey et al., 2014; Roberts et al., 2018), population density–induced pressure, conflict (Amuedo‐Dorantes & Puttitanun, 2016; Basu & Pearlman, 2017; Contreras, 2014; Hiskey et al., 2014; Jampaklay et al., 2017; Massey et al., 2014, 2016; Owen & Wesselbaum, 2020; Orozco‐Aleman & Gonzalez‐Lozano, 2018; Quijada & Sierra, 2019; Roberts et al., 2018; Silva & Massey, 2015), and climate of the origin country of migrants (Hunter et al., 2013; Nawrotzki & DeWaard, 2016; Owen & Wesselbaum, 2020). The primary macrolevel endogenous factors considered are economy and occupation (Angelucci, 2012; Amuedo‐Dorantes & Puttitanun, 2016; Dolfin & Genicot, 2010; Hanson and Spilimbergo, 1999; Massey et al., 1994; Massey & Espinosa, 1997).…”