Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only
Abstract. The Naga Foundation aims to implement durable re-greening interventions to increase local soil sustainability and regional water availability. When this is done on a large enough scale such landscape changes may also lead to positive regional climate impacts. Naga is developing a plan to re-green 15 large areas in Eastern Africa, creating a so-called hydrological corridor. Four potential hydrological corridors have been identified in Kenya and Tanzania, all four of them around Mount Kilimanjaro. To select the most promising corridor, a method was developed to support a decision in a situation where few data are available. The method is based on maps, models and literature from four different disciplines concerning soil, water, climate and social institutions. The findings favour the Tanzanian corridors and especially the Tanzania-East one, to start with re-greening projects. In that region many applicable land management options combine with a high potential for restoring soil organic matter, the highest rainfall recycling potential exists in the more favourable long rains season, while finally also the Tanzanian governments both at national and at local level seem more dependable for supporting hydrological corridor implementation.
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