La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) Document téléchargé depuis www.cairn.info ---44.224.250.Abstract -The aim of this paper is to present projections of public expenditure on health care and long-term care for the elderly, in view of ageing populations, undertaken by the Working Group on Ageing of the European Economic Policy Committee and presented to the ECOFIN Council in 2001. These projections cover almost all of the fifteen EU Member States, and make initial projections of expenditure for the first half of the current century . The expenditure projections were produced using a common methodology, a common demographic projection and commonly agreed macroeconomic assumptions. Projections of health care expenditure and long-term care expenditure were run separately in order to analyse the implications of ageing for the two different expenditure components.In summary, the projections reveal that the impact of ageing for public finances, from increased public expenditure on health and long-term care, is likely to be significant in the first half of the current century. The results of the projections are to be understood as reflecting the impact of future demographic changes on overall levels of health and long-term care expenditure -one way of interpreting the projections is to treat them as a picture of what expenditure levels would be today if we had the demographic composition of future years. As such, these numbers are subject to both upside and downside risks. Upside risks stem from the fact that key non-demographic drivers of health and long-term care expenditure are not explicitly modelled in the projections. Moreover, assumptions for the developments of expenditures per head are mostly lower than those that would be predicted from long-term historical trends. Downside risks stem from the fact that the relationship between age and health status, and thus age and care needs, is likely to change over time.
Résumé Cet article tente de faire un bref bilan de la loi de 1996 relative à la promotion de l’emploi et à la sauvegarde préventive de la compétitivité. Que dit la loi ? Comment celle-ci a-t-elle été appliquée ? D’où proviennent les dérapages des salaires par rapport à ceux de nos voisins ? Comment améliorer le fonctionnement de la loi ? Voilà quelques questions auxquelles il est brièvement fait écho. Le constat est que la loi a été un instrument de gestion macroéconomique remarquable, même si il y a des améliorations indispensables à apporter, en particulier dans ses aspects structurels. Dommage que la Grèce, le Portugal ou l’Italie n’ont pas pu bénéficier d’une telle loi !
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.