Summary 1.Reintroductions are commonly used for re-establishing self-sustainable populations in formerly inhabited areas. Reintroductions are expensive, and thus, it is worth performing a thorough demographic analysis of current and likely future population trajectories to guide strategic decisions on release policy. 2. Bearded vultures Gypaetus barbatus were exterminated from the Alps in the late 19th century, mainly due to human persecution. To re-establish them, captive-bred young have been released annually since 1986. Since the first successful breeding in the wild in 1997, the population has increased to 9 pairs in 2006. It is not known, however, for how long releases should be continued to obtain a self-sustaining, viable population. 3. We estimated age-specific survival probabilities with a mark-resighting model and quantified fecundity rates of released individuals. Using the resulting demographic estimates, we built a stochastic population model to estimate population growth rates, and explored the value of continuing to release birds for varying periods into the future. 4. Annual survival probabilities were high (first year of life, 0·88; later years, 0·96); average annual fecundity was 0·6 fledglings per breeding pair. Using the estimated survival probabilities, projected population growth rates would increase with additional years of releases. Yet, the population would grow, even if releases had stopped after 2006. Only if mortality increased by ≥ 50% would the population start to decline. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our population dynamics model provides essential information to optimize decision-making within a major reintroduction programme. From a demographic viewpoint, releases of captive-raised bearded vultures can be ceased in the Alps. The resources freed could be redirected towards a close demographic surveillance of the free-ranging population, with periodic evaluation of its viability and the option to release birds if deemed necessary. Birds available from the captive stock could be used for reintroductions in other areas where the bearded vulture is extinct.
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3-32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8-52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10-18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22-46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo-Malaysia, with potentially 7-48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.
Scent marking is often assumed to be a secondary sexual trait that increases males' mating and reproductive success, although direct evidence for this hypothesis is lacking. We conducted a study with wild-derived house mice, Mus musculus musculus, to test whether scent marking increases males' reproductive success when females can freely choose between two territorial males. We also experimentally manipulated males' competitive scent marking by exchanging scent-marked tiles between the neighbouring males' territories (intrusion treatment) or relocating males' tiles within their own territory (control). Experimental animals were tested twice and we examined whether individual males were consistent in their marking. We found that males marked more in the intrusion treatment than controls and more at shared territorial borders than elsewhere. We found high day-to-day variation in most individuals' scent marking, and yet the sum of individuals' scent marking was consistent over time and across different social conditions. Genetic paternity analyses revealed that males' scent marking significantly increased their reproductive success in both the intrusion treatment and the controls. Surprisingly, however, female social preference was not positively correlated with male scent marking. These results provide direct evidence that scent marking increases males' reproductive success when females can choose their mates, even though it did not increase females' social preferences. Keywordshouse mouse; male-male competition; marking consistency; Mus musculus musculus; reproductive success; scent marking; social preference Many animal species deposit scent marks, which mediate intraspecific communication and sexual selection, and scent marking has been suggested to function to advertise males'
Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for biodiversity; however, a baseline, broad-scale assessment of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity is lacking. Here, we quantify area loss for over 12 900 islands and over 3000 terrestrial vertebrates in the Pacific and Southeast Asia under three different SLR scenarios (1 m, 3 m and 6 m). We used very fine-grained elevation information, which offered >100 times greater spatial detail than previous analyses and allowed us to evaluate thousands of hitherto not assessed small islands. Depending on the SLR scenario, we estimate that 15-62% of islands in our study region will be completely inundated and 19-24% will lose 50-99% of their area. Overall, we project that between 1% and 9% of the total island area in our study region may be lost. We find that Pacific species are 2-3 times more vulnerable than those in the Indomalayan or Australasian region and risk losing 4-22% of range area (1-6 m SLR). Species already listed as threatened by IUCN are particularly vulnerable compared with non-threatened species. Under a simple area loss-species loss proportionality assumption, we estimate that 37 island group endemic species in this region risk complete inundation of their current global distribution in the 1 m SLR scenario that is widely anticipated for this century (and 118 species under 3 m SLR). Our analysis provides a first, broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity and our findings confirm that islands are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise even within this century.
Females often show multi-male mating (MMM), but the adaptive functions are unclear. We tested whether female house mice (Mus musculus musculus) show MMM when they can choose their mates without male coercion. We released 32 females into separate enclosures where they could choose to mate with two neighboring males that were restricted to their own territories. We also tested whether females increase MMM when the available males appeared unable to exclude intruders from their territories. To manipulate territorial intrusion, we introduced scent-marked tiles from the neighboring males into males' territories, or we rearranged tiles within males' own territories as a control. Each female was tested in treatment and control conditions and we conducted paternity analyses on the 57 litters produced. We found that 46 % of litters were multiply sired, indicating that multiple paternity is common when females can choose their mates. Intrusion did not increase multiple paternity, though multiple paternity was significantly greater in the first trial when the males were virgins compared to the second trial. Since virgin male mice are highly infanticidal, this finding is consistent with the infanticide avoidance hypothesis. We also found that multiple paternity was higher when competing males showed small differences in their amount of scent marking, suggesting that females reduce MMM when they can detect differences in males' quality. Finally, multiple paternity was associated with increased litter size but only in the intrusion treatment, which suggests that the effect of multiple paternity on offspring number is dependent on male–male interactions.
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