Future climate change driven sea‐level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity

Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3-32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8-52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10-18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22-46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo-Malaysia, with potentially 7-48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

“…The interactions between crop suitability and conservation are not one-way interactions, as consumer preference for environmentally friendly production may penalize commodities that have novel or disproportional impacts on nature. The literature on indirect impacts of climate change on conservation is growing, including, for instance, the potential conservation impacts of human populations displaced by sea level rise (41). Indirect impacts of change in agriculture on ecosystems and their services has an important place in this growing body of research (15) Adaptation strategies are available to wine growers to maintain productivity and quality as well as to minimize freshwater withdrawals and terrestrial footprint (39).…”

Tropical limestone forest resilience and late Pleistocene foraging during MIS-2 in the Tràng An massif, Vietnam

“…Virah-Sawmy et al 2009;Kirwan et al 2010;Holland 2012;Mendoza-González et al 2013;Hunter et al 2015), with few recent exceptions (e.g. Wetzel et al 2012;Faridah-Hanum et al 2014;Latinne et al 2015) the effect of climate change on coastal tropical terrestrial habitats is still an underrepresented field, and a body of research to which this study contributes. In closing, then we suggest that there are notable implications for conservation arising from the Hang Trống study.…”

Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide

“…Despite considerable attention to global change effects, few studies focused on the consequences of sea level rise (Menon et al 2010;Wetzel et al 2012;Schmidt et al 2012). Many studies showed that global warming will be one of the biggest threat to future biodiversity, and predictions could play an important role in alerting scientists and decision makers to support the development of proactive strategies to reduce climate change impacts on biodiversity (Bellard et al 2012).…”