. Utilizou-se o modelo APSIM-Sugar calibrado com base em dois experimentos localizados em Piracicaba, SP, e Salinas, MG, conduzidos com a variedade SP80-1842. Avaliou-se a sensibilidade do modelo aos parâmetros de solo e de variedade, em especial aqueles relacionados à dinâmica da matéria orgânica do solo e do nitrogênio. O modelo mostrou-se capaz de descrever adequadamente o crescimento da cana-de-açúcar nos dois ambientes produtivos. As simulações indicaram que a remoção da palha para utilização na indústria acarretaria redução da produtividade no longo prazo e que a elevação na adubação nitrogenada até 180 kg ha -1 não seria suficiente para compensar a queda na produção.Simulating trash and nitrogen management effects on sugar cane yield A B S T R A C TThe objective of the study was to model the growth and productivity of green and burnt sugarcane harvesting systems, under three nitrogen fertilizer levels (60, 120 and 180 kg ha -1 ). APSIM-Sugar crop model was previoulsy calibrated based on two field experiments conducted in Piracicaba,SP and Salinas, MG, with the cultivar SP80-1842. The sensitivity of the model was evaluated for the parameters of soil and variety, especially those related to the soil organic matter dynamics and nitrogen. The model simulated well the sugarcane growth and yield in the evaluated environments. Simulations showed that sugacarne yield being highly dependent on trash management. Trash removal from fields would ultimately decrease the crop yield. Simulations also revealed that the nitrogen doses as high as 180 kg ha -1 would not be enough to overcome the yield lost due to trash removal.Palavras-chave: modelagem palha de cana cogeração adubação nitrogenada
The sugarcane crop (Saccharum officinarum) has socio-economic relevance for Brazil for supporting the country trade account and for its role in Brazilian energy matrix. The State of São Paulo is the largest producer of sugarcane and derivatives. Despite the intense discussion of global climate change over the past decade, it is well known that future climate projections and its impact on agriculture have a number of uncertainties arising from the different components of the system (climate, crop physiology and management). It has been scientifically accepted the use of a ensemble of possible climate scenarios and crop models, rather than just one simulation generated by a single model. In agriculture, it is now scientifically accepted one of the tools for analyzing the impact of climate change on agriculture is the use of process based crop models. This study simulated the current and four future scenarios of climate change for sugarcane in 38 municipalities of São Paulo, in three harvest season , using APSIM-Sugar and DSSAT/CANEGRO. Future climate scenarios, on average, represented an increase of 3% of total annual precipitation (45 mm), 9% in average maximum temperature (3°C) and 15% in average minimum temperature (3 °C) for the sites in comparison with the current scenario. Models simulated the fresh stalk mass increasing in the future around 16% in APSIM-Sugar model and 4% in DSSAT/CANEGRO model, as well as the reduction of climate risks for sugarcane production. Based on these data, none of future climate scenarios would imply in yield loss compared to the current climate.
O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular os níveis de produção da cana-de-açúcar para o cenário atual e futuro do Estado de São Paulo, baseando-se em dois modelos de simulação de cultura (DSSAT/CANEGRO e APSIM/Sugar) e dois modelos de projeção climática (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 e HadGEM2-ES). As simulações ocorreram para trinta e oito locais do Estado e replicadas para dois cenários de emissão, otimista (RCP 4.5) e pessimista (RCP 8.5), e para três épocas de corte (precoce, média e tardia). Os cenários futuros, em média, representaram um aumento de 3% de precipitação total anual (45 mm), 9% na temperatura média máxima (3 °C) e 15% na temperatura média mínima (3 °C) nos locais de estudo em relação ao cenário atual. Através das simulações produzidas pelos dois modelos, foi possível identificar que a massa fresca de colmos respondeu positivamente aos cenários climáticos futuros em relação ao cenário atual, chegando a 16% no modelo APSIM/Sugar e 4% no modelo DSSAT/CANEGRO, o que corresponde à redução dos riscos de produção de cana-de-açúcar. De modo geral, nenhum dos cenários climáticos futuros implicaria em perda de produtividade em relação ao padrão atual.
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