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When it comes to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil, one of the main targets of public health policies of surveillance is the control of domestic canine reservoirs of Leishmania infantum. This paper aims to evaluate the effect of the dog population and household environment for the maintenance of natural foci in the transmission to human and animal hosts in an endemic city for VL, Bauru, in Brazil. We collected 6,578 blood samples of dogs living in 3,916 households from Nov.2019 to Mar.2020 and applied geospatial models to predict the disease risk based on the canine population. We used Kernel density estimation, cluster analysis, geostatistics, and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). To validate our models, we used cross-validation and created a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We found an overall canine VL (CVL) seroprevalence of 5.6% for the sampled dogs, while for the households, the positivity rate was 8.7%. Odds ratios (OR) for CVL increased progressively according to the number of canines for >2 dogs (OR 2.70); households that already had CVL in the past increased the chances for CVL currently (OR 2.73); and the cases of CVL increase the chances for human VL cases (OR 1.16). Our models were statistically significant and demonstrated a spatial association between canine and human disease cases, mainly in VL foci that remain endemic. Although the Kernel density ratio map had the best performance (AUC = 82), all the models showed high risk in the city’s northwest area. Canine population dynamics must be considered in public policies, and geospatial methods may help target priority areas and planning VL surveillance in low and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND Trypanosoma cruzi shows an exuberant genetic diversity. Currently, seven phylogenetic lineages, called discrete typing units (DTUs), are recognised: TcI-TcVI and Tcbat. Despite advances in studies on T. cruzi and its populations, there is no consensus regarding its heterogeneity. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to perform molecular characterisation of T. cruzi strains, isolated in the state of São Paulo, to identify the DTUs involved and evaluate their genetic diversity. METHODS T. cruzi strains were isolated from biological samples of chronic chagasic patients, marsupials and triatomines through culture techniques and subjected to molecular characterisation using the fluorescent fragment length barcoding (FFLB) technique. Subsequently, the results were correlated with complementary information to enable better discrimination between the identified DTUs. FINDINGS It was possible to identify TcI in two humans and two triatomines; TcII/VI in 19 humans, two marsupials and one triatomine; and TcIII in one human host, an individual that also presented a result for TcI, which indicated the possibility of a mixed infection. Regarding the strains characterised by the TcII/VI profile, the correlation with complementary information allowed to suggest that, in general, these parasite populations indeed correspond to the TcII genotype. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The TcII/VI profile, associated with domestic cycles and patients with chronic Chagas disease, was the most prevalent among the identified DTUs. Furthermore, the correlation of the study results with complementary information made it possible to suggest that TcII is the predominant lineage of this work.

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