To facilitate the assessment of hazards and risk from volcanoes, we have created a comprehensive global database of Quaternary Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE). This forms part of the larger Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA), and also forms part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) initiative (www.globalvolcanomodel.org). A flexible search tool allows users to select data on a global, regional or local scale; the selected data can be downloaded into a spreadsheet. The database is publically available online at www.bgs.ac. uk/vogripa and currently contains information on nearly 3,000 volcanoes and over 1,800 Quaternary eruption records. Not all volcanoes currently have eruptions associated with them but have been included to allow for easy expansion of the database as more data are found. Data fields include: magnitude, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), deposit volumes, eruption dates, and rock type. The scientific community is invited to contribute new data and also alert the database manager to potentially incorrect data. Whilst the database currently focuses only on large magnitude eruptions, it will be expanded to include data specifically relating to the principal volcanic hazards (e.g. pyroclastic flows, tephra fall, lahars, debris avalanches, ballistics), as well as vulnerability (e.g. population figures, building type) to facilitate risk assessments of future eruptions.
A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.
The Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database contains data on 1,883 Quaternary eruption records of magnitude (M) 4 and above and is publically accessible online via the British Geological Survey. Spatial and temporal analysis of the data indicates that the record is incomplete and is thus biased. The recorded distribution of volcanoes is variable on a global scale, with three-quarters of all volcanoes with M≥4 Quaternary activity located in the northern hemisphere and a quarter within Japan alone. The distribution of recorded eruptions does not strictly follow the spatial distribution of volcanoes and has distinct intra-regional variability, with about 40% of all recorded eruptions having occurred in Japan, reflecting in part the country's efforts devoted to comprehensive volcanic studies. The number of eruptions in LaMEVE decreases with increasing age, exemplified by the recording of 50% of all known Quaternary eruptions during the last 20,000 years. Historical dating is prevalent from 1450 AD to the present day, substantially improving record completeness. The completeness of the record also improves as magnitude increases. This is demonstrated by the calculation of the median time, T 50 , for eruptions within given magnitude intervals, where 50% of eruptions are older than T 50 : T 50 ranges from 5,070 years for M4-4.9 eruptions to 935,000 years for M≥8 eruptions. T 50 follows a power law fit, suggesting a quantifiable relationship between eruption size and preservation potential of eruptive products. Several geographic regions have T 50 ages of <250 years for the smallest (~M4) eruptions reflecting substantial levels of under-recording. There is evidence for latitudinal variation in eruptive activity, possibly due to the effects of glaciation. A peak in recorded activity is identified at 11 to 9 ka in high-latitude glaciated regions. This is absent in non-glaciated regions, supporting the hypothesis of increased volcanism due to ice unloading around this time. Record completeness and consequent interpretation of record limitations are important in understanding volcanism on global to local scales and must be considered during rigorous volcanic hazard and risk assessments. The study also indicates that there need to be improvements in the quality of data, including assessment of uncertainties in volume estimates.
Sixteen years have passed since the last global volcanic event and more than 25 since a volcanic catastrophe that killed tens of thousands. In this time, volcanology has seen major advances in understanding, modelling and predicting volcanic hazards and, recently, an interest in techniques for reducing and mitigating volcanic risk. This paper provides a synthesis of literature relating to this last aspect, specifically the communication of volcanic risk, with a view to highlighting areas of future research into encouraging risk-reducing behaviour. Evidence suggests that the current 'multidisciplinary' approach within physical science needs a broader scope to include sociological knowledge and techniques. Key areas where this approach might be applied are: (1) the understanding of the incentives that make governments and communities act to reduce volcanic risk; (2) improving the communication of volcanic uncertainties in volcanic emergency management and long-term planning and development. To be successful, volcanic risk reduction programmes will need to be placed within the context of other other risk-related phenomena (e.g. other natural hazards, climate change) and aim to develop an all-risks reduction culture. We suggest that the greatest potential for achieving these two aims comes from deliberative inclusive processes and geographic information systems.
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