How many explosive eruptions are missing from the geologic record? Analysis of the quaternary record of large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan

Kiyosugi, Koji; Connor, Charles B.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Crosweller, Helen Sian; Brown, Sarah K.; Siebert, Lee; Wang, Ting; Takarada, Shinji

doi:10.1186/s13617-015-0035-9

Cited by 48 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…This functional form encodes two basic beliefs: that the recording rate is currently 1, and that it decreases smoothly backwards in time. A very similar approach is used by Kiyosugi et al (2015), who propose an exponential curve. Another, used by Furlan (2010) and Mead and Magill (2014), is…”

Section: Review Of Previous Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But magnitude is always imperfectly inferred. Mead and Magill (2014) and Kiyosugi et al (2015), for example, implicitly assume that VEIs have been accurately categorized for several thousands of years, despite the very different ways in which VEIs have been assessed for eruptions occurring at different times over the Holocene and the Quaternary, respectively. Evidence of misrecording of magnitudes over the last millenium is given in Fig.…”

Section: Our Statistical Non-parametric Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Kiyosugi et al 2015, use a separate recording function for each for each magnitude class using the Volcanic Explosivity Index). Thus all papers implicitly assume that magnitudes have been accurately recorded, and that, a fortiori, this accuracy has not changed through time.…”

Section: Our Statistical Non-parametric Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global recording rates for large eruptions

2016

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A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50 %, and prior to 1100 they are below 20 %. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100 %. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.

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Section: Review Of Previous Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Our Statistical Non-parametric Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global recording rates for large eruptions

2016

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“…However, on the high end, QEAR volcanoes in the New Zealand to Fiji region have a mean of 7.1 reported eruptions, whereas on the low end, QEAR volcanoes in both the Africa and Red Sea region and the Kuril Islands region have a mean of 1.4 reported eruptions. Similarly, Kiyosugi et al (2015) 2 found that while Japanese eruptions account for 38% of all LaMEVE eruptions, Japanese volcanoes only account for <4% of LaMEVE volcanoes. In this report we explore the possibility that individual volcanoes, not just regions, may disproportionately contribute to the global record.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under-recording of volcanic eruptions in the LaMEVE and companion databases such as the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (Global Volcanism Program, 2013) is a well-known problem (e.g., Newhall and Self, 1982;Simkin, 1993;Siebert et al, 2010;Brown et al, 2014, Rougier et al, 2016: the further back one goes from the present, the fewer eruptions have been reported, with the recording rate of smaller eruptions decaying more rapidly than for larger eruptions. Various strategies have been taken to both characterise and correct for the incompleteness of the record (e.g., Coles and Sparks, 2006;Marzocchi and Zaccarelli, 2006;Deligne et al, 2010;Furlan, 2010;Jenkins et al, 2012;Mead and Magill, 2014;Kiyosugi et al, 2015;Rougier et al, 2016) to characterise magnitude-frequency relationships and other properties. However, a potential issue is whether LaMEVE disproportionately "samples" a few volcanoes, introducing biases and potentially compromising its analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global volcanism

2017

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We investigate whether the disproportionate contribution of individual volcanoes in the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruption database (LaMEVE) potentially compromises the treatment of LaMEVE as a globally representative database of volcanic activity. We find that 41% of volcanoes which contribute at least one eruption to LaMEVE only contribute one eruption (10% of all eruptions), and the six most prolific volcanoes contribute 11% of eruptions. However, there is no systematic bias with respect to the eruption magnitude or date for volcanoes contributing one eruption. Also, no bias can be discerned for when the smallest or largest eruption at a volcano occurs in its eruptive record. Half of the volcanoes contributing one or more eruptions to the LaMEVE database had their first eruption prior to 36.4 ka. We find LaMEVE is representative -while there are well-known issues of eruption under-reporting, LaMEVE is not overly biased by the activity of a few volcanoes.

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Increased rates of large‐magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan in the late Neogene and Quaternary

Mahony

Sparks

Wallace

et al. 2016

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Tephra layers in marine sediment cores from scientific ocean drilling largely record high‐magnitude silicic explosive eruptions in the Japan arc for up to the last 20 million years. Analysis of the thickness variation with distance of 180 tephra layers from a global data set suggests that the majority of the visible tephra layers used in this study are the products of caldera‐forming eruptions with magnitude (M) > 6, considering their distances at the respective drilling sites to their likely volcanic sources. Frequency of visible tephra layers in cores indicates a marked increase in rates of large magnitude explosive eruptions at ∼8 Ma, 6–4 Ma, and further increase after ∼2 Ma. These changes are attributed to major changes in tectonic plate interactions. Lower rates of large magnitude explosive volcanism in the Miocene are related to a strike‐slip‐dominated boundary (and temporary cessation or deceleration of subduction) between the Philippine Sea Plate and southwest Japan, combined with the possibility that much of the arc in northern Japan was submerged beneath sea level partly due to previous tectonic extension of northern Honshu related to formation of the Sea of Japan. Changes in plate motions and subduction dynamics during the ∼8 Ma to present period led to (1) increased arc‐normal subduction in southwest Japan (and resumption of arc volcanism) and (2) shift from extension to compression of the upper plate in northeast Japan, leading to uplift, crustal thickening and favorable conditions for accumulation of the large volumes of silicic magma needed for explosive caldera‐forming eruptions.

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How many explosive eruptions are missing from the geologic record? Analysis of the quaternary record of large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan

Cited by 48 publications

References 26 publications

Global recording rates for large eruptions

Global recording rates for large eruptions

Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global volcanism

Increased rates of large‐magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan in the late Neogene and Quaternary

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