The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) was designed to be a land surface model (LSM) benchmarking intercomparison. Unlike the traditional methods of LSM evaluation or comparison, benchmarking uses a fundamentally different approach in that it sets expectations of performance in a range of metrics a priori-before model simulations are performed. This can lead to very different conclusions about LSM performance. For this study, both simple physically based models and empirical relationships were used as the benchmarks. Simulations were performed with 13 LSMs using atmospheric forcing for 20 sites, and then model performance relative to these benchmarks was examined. Results show that even for commonly used statistical metrics, the LSMs' performance varies considerably when compared to the different benchmarks. All models outperform the simple physically based benchmarks, but for sensible heat flux the LSMs are themselves outperformed by an out-of-sample linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. While moisture information is clearly central to latent heat flux prediction, the LSMs are still outperformed by a three-variable nonlinear regression that uses instantaneous atmospheric humidity and temperature in addition to downward shortwave radiation. These results highlight the limitations of the prevailing paradigm of LSM evaluation that simply compares an LSM to observations and to other LSMs without a mechanism to objectively quantify the expectations of performance. The authors conclude that their results challenge the conceptual view of energy partitioning at the land surface.
The PALS Land sUrface Model Benchmarking Evaluation pRoject (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave, surface air temperature and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. We examine whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to time-scale aggregation and whether a lack of energy conservation in flux tower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. We demonstrate that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. We also show that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. Finally, we present evidence suggesting that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While we do not find a single candidate explanation for why land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER, we do exclude multiple possible explanations and provide guidance on where future research should focus.
Protocols in clinics are useful as this should maintain good practice and allow on-going monitoring, but they need precise use. Also, as many children with AD/HD present with co-morbid psychopathology and complicated family dynamics to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services, this will influence assessment and treatment needs and require increased resources.
Ground‐based GNSS Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) observations have been assimilated into the Met Office numerical weather prediction (NWP) models since 2007, and into the Met Office UKV model since its introduction in 2009. The UKV model is a 1.5 km resolution convective‐scale model and uses a 3D‐Var assimilation system. There is a plan to upgrade the UKV assimilation system from 3D‐Var to 4D‐Var in the near future, giving the opportunity to increase the temporal resolution of ZTDs assimilated. The ZTD observation‐error covariances used operationally are assumed to be uncorrelated in both space and time despite the expectation that ZTDs have temporally and spatially correlated observation errors due to the production method (e.g. batch processing using a sliding window and (time) relative constraints). To assess whether these error correlations should be accounted for in order to use ZTDs at higher temporal resolution, a posteriori diagnostics to estimate the extent of temporal and spatial error correlations in ZTD observations over the UK, BENELUX and Northern France are used.
Over two separate month‐long periods, we find that ZTD observations within the same processing batch are correlated, and that correlations persist between different batches to at least 1 h. Spatially, ZTD observations are found to be correlated to a minimum of 62.5 km. We find that the extent of the diagnosed correlation between observations separated in space and time is affected by the value of the relative constraints parameter chosen by the processing centre in the GNSS processing software. The impact of the relative constraints parameter on the diagnosed error variances is greater than that revealed by innovation statistics alone.
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