Background While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs. Methods We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region. Results Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57). Conclusion The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.

ObjectivesTo conduct a health economic evaluation of a proposed investment in urban bicycle infrastructure in Stockholm County, Sweden.DesignA cost-effectiveness analysis is undertaken from a healthcare perspective. Investment costs over a 50-year life cycle are offset by averted healthcare costs and compared with estimated long-term impacts on morbidity, quantified in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The results are re-calculated under different assumptions to model the effects of uncertainty.SettingThe Municipality of Stockholm (population 2.27 million) committed funds for bicycle path infrastructure with the aim of achieving a 15% increase in the number of bicycle commuters by 2030. This work is based on a previously constructed scenario, in which individual registry data on home and work address and a transport model allocation to different modes of transport identified 111 487 individuals with the physical capacity to bicycle to work within 30 min but that currently drive a car to work.ResultsMorbidity impacts and healthcare costs attributed to increased physical activity, change in air pollution exposure and accident risk are quantified under the scenario. The largest reduction in healthcare costs is attributed to increased physical activity and the second largest to reduced air pollution exposure among the population of Greater Stockholm. The expected net benefit from the investment is 8.7% of the 2017 Stockholm County healthcare budget, and 3.7% after discounting. The economic evaluation estimates that the intervention is cost-effective and each DALY averted gives a surplus of €9933. The results remained robust under varied assumptions pertaining to reduced numbers of additional bicycle commuters.ConclusionInvesting in urban infrastructure to increase bicycling as active transport is cost-effective from a healthcare sector perspective.

Long-term air pollution exposure increases the risk for cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the temporal relationships between exposure and health outcomes. This study aims to estimate the exposure-lag response between air pollution exposure and risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke incidence by applying distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Annual mean concentrations of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) were estimated for participants in five Swedish cohorts using dispersion models. Simultaneous estimates of exposure lags 1–10 years using DLNMs were compared with separate year specific (single lag) estimates and estimates for lag 1–5- and 6–10-years using moving average exposure. The DLNM estimated no exposure lag-response between PM2.5 total, BC, and IHD. However, for PM2.5 from local sources, a 20% risk increase per 1 µg/m3 for 1-year lag was estimated. A risk increase for stroke was suggested in relation to lags 2–4-year PM2.5 and BC, and also lags 8–9-years BC. No associations were shown in single lag models. Increased risk estimates for stroke in relation to lag 1–5- and 6–10-years BC moving averages were observed. Estimates generally supported a greater contribution to increased risk from exposure windows closer in time to incident IHD and incident stroke.

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Background Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and other dementias currently represent the fifth most common cause of death in the world, according to the World Health Organization, with a projected future increase as the proportion of the elderly in the population is growing. Air pollution has emerged as a plausible risk factor for AD, but studies estimating dementia cases attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and resulting monetary estimates are lacking. Methods We used data on average population-weighted exposure to ambient PM2.5 for the entire population of Sweden above 30 years of age. To estimate the annual number of dementia cases attributable to air pollution in the Swedish population above 60 years of age, we used the latest concentration response functions (CRF) between PM2.5 exposure and dementia incidence, based on ten longitudinal cohort studies, for the population above 60 years of age. To estimate the monetary burden of attributable cases, we calculated total costs related to dementia, including direct and indirect lifetime costs and intangible costs by including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. Two different monetary valuations of QALYs in Sweden were used to estimate the monetary value of reduced quality-of-life from two different payer perspectives. Results The annual number of dementia cases attributable to PM2.5 exposure was estimated to be 820, which represents 5% of the annual dementia cases in Sweden. Direct and indirect lifetime average cost per dementia case was estimated to correspond € 213,000. A reduction of PM2.5 by 1 μg/m3 was estimated to yield 101 fewer cases of dementia incidences annually, resulting in an estimated monetary benefit ranging up to 0.01% of the Swedish GDP in 2019. Conclusion This study estimated that 5% of annual dementia cases could be attributed to PM2.5 exposure, and that the resulting monetary burden is substantial. These findings suggest the need to consider airborne toxic pollutants associated with dementia incidence in public health policy decisions.