Keen, H. F., Gosling, W. D., Hanke, F., Miller, C. S., Montoya, E., Valencia, B. G., Williams, J. J. (2014). A statistical sub-sampling tool for extracting vegetation community and diversity information from pollen assemblage data. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 408, 48-59Pollen assemblages are used extensively across the globe, providing information on various characteristics of the vegetation communities that originally produced them, and how these vary temporally and spatially. However, anticipating a statistically based robust pollen count size, sufficient to characterise a pollen assemblage is difficult; particularly with regard to highly diverse pollen assemblages. To facilitate extraction of ecologically meaningful information from pollen assemblage data, a two part statistical sub-sampling tool has been developed (Models 1 and 2), which determines the pollen count size required to capture major vegetation communities of varying palynological richness and evenness, and the count size required to find the next not yet seen (rare) pollen taxa. The sub-sampling tool presented here facilitates the rapid assessment of individual pollen samples (initial information input of 100 pollen grains) and can, therefore, on a sample by sample basis achieve maximum effectiveness and efficiency. The sub-sampling tool is tested on fossil pollen data from five tropical sites. Results demonstrate that Model 1 predicts count sizes relating to palynological richness and evenness consistently. To characterise major vegetation community components model 1 indicates that, for samples with a lower richness and higher evenness lower count sizes than are considered standard can be used (< 300, e.g. 122); however, for samples of high richness and low evenness, higher count sizes are required (> 300, e.g. 870). Model 2 calculates the additional number of pollen grains needed to be counted to detect the next not yet seen pollen taxa, outputs were strongly related to input data count size as well as richness and evenness characteristics. We conclude that, given the temporal and spatial variations in vegetation communities and also pollen assemblages, pollen count sizes should be determined for each individual sample to ensure that effective and efficient data are generated and that detection of rare taxa is checked iteratively throughout the counting processpublishersversionPeer reviewe

Tropical ecosystems play a key role in many aspects of Earth system dynamics currently of global concern, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity. To accurately understand complex tropical systems it is necessary to parameterise key ecological aspects, such as rates of change (RoC), species turnover, dynamism, resilience, or stability. To obtain a long-term (>50 years) perspective on these ecological aspects we must turn to the fossil record. However, compared to temperate zones, collecting continuous sedimentary archives in the lowland tropics is often difficult due to the active landscape processes, with potentially frequent volcanic, tectonic, and/or fluvial events confounding sediment deposition, preservation, and recovery. Consequently, the nature, and drivers, of vegetation dynamics during the last glacial are barely known from many non-montane tropical landscapes. One of the first lowland Amazonian locations from which palaeoecological data were obtained was an outcrop near Mera (Ecuador). Mera was discovered, and analysed, by Paul Colinvaux in the 1980s, but his interpretation of the data as indicative of a forested glacial period were criticised based on the ecology and age control. Here we present new palaeoecological data from a lake located less than 10 km away from Mera. Sediment cores raised from Laguna Pindo (1250 masl; 1°27′S, 78°05′W) have been shown to span the late last glacial period [50–13 cal kyr BP (calibrated kiloyears before present)]. The palaeoecological information obtained from Laguna Pindo indicate that the region was characterised by a relatively stable plant community, formed by taxa nowadays common at both mid and high elevations. Miconia was the dominant taxon until around 30 cal kyr BP, when it was replaced by Hedyosmum, Asteraceae and Ilex among other taxa. Heat intolerant taxa including Podocarpus, Alnus, and Myrica peaked around the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 21 cal kyr BP). The results obtained from Laguna Pindo support Colinvaux’s hypothesis that glacial cooling resulted in a reshuffling of taxa in the region but did not lead to a loss of the forest structure. Wide tolerances of the plant species occurring to glacial temperature range and cloud formation have been suggested to explain Pindo forest stability. This scenario is radically different than the present situation, so vulnerability of the tropical pre-montane forest is highlighted to be increased in the next decades.

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