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One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

The 11-yr solar cycle [decadal solar oscillation (DSO)] at its peaks strengthens the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropical Pacific during northern winter. Results from two global coupled climate model ensemble simulations of twentieth-century climate that include anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, ozone, and sulfate aerosols, as well as black carbon aerosols in one of the models) and natural (volcano and solar) forcings agree with observations in the Pacific region, though the amplitude of the response in the models is about half the magnitude of the observations. These models have poorly resolved stratospheres and no 11-yr ozone variations, so the mechanism depends almost entirely on the increased solar forcing at peaks in the DSO acting on the ocean surface in clear sky areas of the equatorial and subtropical Pacific. Mainly due to geometrical considerations and cloud feedbacks, this solar forcing can be nearly an order of magnitude greater in those regions than the globally averaged solar forcing. The mechanism involves the increased solar forcing at the surface being manifested by increased latent heat flux and evaporation. The resulting moisture is carried to the convergence zones by the trade winds, thereby strengthening the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ). Once these precipitation regimes begin to intensify, an amplifying set of coupled feedbacks similar to that in cold events (or La Niña events) occurs. There is a strengthening of the trades and greater upwelling of colder water that extends the equatorial cold tongue farther west and reduces precipitation across the equatorial Pacific, while increasing precipitation even more in the ITCZ and SPCZ. Experiments with the atmosphere component from one of the coupled models are performed in which heating anomalies similar to those observed during DSO peaks are specified in the tropical Pacific. The result is an anomalous Rossby wave response in the atmosphere and consequent positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific extending to western North America. These patterns match features that occur during DSO peak years in observations and the coupled models.

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Observations since the middle of the 19th century show that the decadal solar oscillation at its peaks strengthens the major convergence zones in the tropical Pacific (Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ, and South Pacific Convergence Zone, SPCZ) during northern winter. Through an amplifying set of coupled feedbacks, a set of processes is described that link solar forcing and its response in the tropical Pacific with reductions in precipitation in the northwest United States. The process begins with an increase in solar forcing which results in a strengthening of the major convergence zones in the tropical Pacific. This then increases the precipitation in those regions and increases the southeast trade winds. Stronger trades increase the upwelling of colder water in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extend the cold tongue westward, thus reducing precipitation in the western Pacific. This redistribution of diabatic heating and associated convective heating anomalies thus produces anomalies in the tropical Hadley (north‐south) and Walker (east‐west) circulations. The former weakens as subsidence in equatorial latitudes is enhanced; the latter strengthens and extends westward. Additionally, the resulting anomalous Rossby wave response in the atmosphere, and consequent positive sea level pressure anomalies in the eastern region of the Aleutian low in the North Pacific that extends to western North America, is associated with reductions of precipitation in the northwest United States. The response of the climate system to solar forcing is manifested as a strengthening of the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics.