The Cadmium Dietary Exposure Model (CDEM) utilizes national survey data on food cadmium concentrations and food consumption patterns to estimate dietary intakes in the U.S. population. The CDEM has been linked to a modification of the cadmium biokinetic model of Kjellström and Nordlberg (KNM) to derive predictions of kidney and urinary cadmium that reflect U.S. dietary cadmium intake and related variability. Variability in dietary cadmium intake was propagated through the KNM using a Monte Carlo approach. The model predicts a mean peak kidney cadmium burden of approximately 3.5 mg and a 5th-95th percentile range of 2.2-5.1 mg in males. The corresponding peak renal cortex cadmium concentration in males is 15 microg/g wet cortex (10-22, 5th-95th percentile). Predicted kidney cadmium levels in females were higher than males: 5.1 (3.3-7.6) mg total kidney, 29 (19-43) microg/g wet cortex. Predicted urinary cadmium in males and females agreed with empirical estimates based on the NHANES III, with females predicted and observed to excrete approximately twice the amount of cadmium in urine than males. An explanation for the higher urinary cadmium excretion in females is proposed that is consistent with the NHANES III data as well as experimental studies in humans and animals. Females may absorb a larger fraction of ingested dietary cadmium than males, and this difference may be the result of lower iron body stores in females compared to males. This would suggest that females may be at greater risk of developing cadmium toxicity than males. The predicted 5th-95th percentile values for peak kidney cadmium burden are approximately 60% of the peak kidney burden (8-11 mg) predicted for a chronic intake at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chronic reference dose of 1 microg/kg-d.

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An analysis of epidemiological studies of associations between exposure to cadmium and kidney toxicity was conducted. Dose-response functions relating low-molecular-weight (LMW) proteinuria to various indices of cadmium dose (dietary cadmium intake, urinary cadmium excretion, or tissue cadmium burden) were obtained from 15 studies of diverse exposures (occupational, general environmental, environmental contamination). Estimates of the dose corresponding to probabilities of LMW proteinuria of 0.1, 0.15, or 0.2 were transformed from the reported dose units into corresponding estimates of target organ dose (microgram Cd/g renal cortex, RC) by simulation using a pharmacokinetics (PK) model. The median RC associated with a 0.1 probability (RC10M) of LMW proteinuria was predicted to be 153 micrograms Cd/g cortex (95% confidence interval [CI]: 84-263). The lower confidence limit on the RC10M (RC10L, 84 micrograms/g cortex) was predicted to be attained with a constant chronic intake of 1 microgram/kg/d in females or 2.2 micrograms/kg/d in males. The RC10L was 2.5-5 times higher than the median RCs predicted to result from dietary cadmium intake in U.S. nonsmokers (microgram Cd/g cortex: 33, females; 17, males) and 1.6-3 times higher than the corresponding 95th percentile RCs (53, females; 27, males). Additional exposure from smoking cigarettes (approximately 20 cigarettes/d, 3 micrograms Cd inhaled/d) was predicted to increase the median RC (microgram/g cortex) by approximately 45-70% (48, females; 29, males); however, predicted 95th percentile RCs for smokers (66, females; 38, males) were lower than the RC10L. These results indicate that, for most of the U.S. population, dietary-derived risks are likely to be negligible, in the absence of exposures from other sources.