Objective. To understand how adaptation/assimilation, disruption, and diffusion interact to produce changes in fertility levels among successive generations of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States.Method. Using restricted access data that link individual data (CPS) to neighborhood data (census tracts), we examine the role of generation, personal characteristics, and neighborhood characteristics in determining children ever born (CEB).Results. There are significant differences in fertility across generations and, to a lesser extent, between women who live in ethnic enclaves and those who do not. Once personal characteristics are considered, the independent effect of generation on fertility is nearly eliminated. Personal characteristics dominate neighborhood characteristics in their ability to predict fertility. The most consistent predictor of CEB at the neighborhood level is the percentage of Hispanic adults.Conclusions. Personal characteristics dominate fertility change across generation, and were it not for increases in educational attainment, fertility might be higher in successive generations rather than lower or unchanged.
The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This could imply skill shortages in the U.S. economy. We develop near-term labor force projections of the educational demands on the workforce and the supply of workers by education to assess the potential for skill imbalances to emerge. Based on our formal projections, we see little likelihood of skill shortages emerging by the end of this decade. More tentatively, though, skill shortages are more likely as all of the baby boomers retire in later years, and skill shortages are more likely in the near-term in states with large and growing immigrant populations.
The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This could imply skill shortages in the U.S. economy. We develop near-term labor force projections of the educational demands on the workforce and the supply of workers by education to assess the potential for skill imbalances to emerge. Based on our formal projections, we see little likelihood of skill shortages emerging by the end of this decade. More tentatively, though, skill shortages are more likely as all of the baby boomers retire in later years, and skill shortages are more likely in the near-term in states with large and growing immigrant populations.
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