Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.
Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses, i.e. additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects.Currently we know little about the spatial scale relevant for the outcome of such interactions and about effect sizes. This knowledge gap needs to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions, for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. The study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalised linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive and 33% in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes the frequency of additive and interactive effects was similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers this frequency increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.
Climate change might have profound effects on the nitrogen (N) dynamics in the cultivated landscape as well as on N transport in streams and the eutrophication of lakes. N loading from land to streams is expected to increase in North European temperate lakes due to higher winter rainfall and changes in cropping patterns. Scenario (IPCC, A2) analyses using a number of models of various complexity for Danish streams and lakes suggest an increase in runoff and N transport on an annual basis (higher during winter and typically lower during summer) in streams, a slight increase in N concentrations in streams despite higher losses in riparian wetlands, higher absolute retention of N in lakes (but not as percentage of loading), but only minor changes in lake water concentrations. However, when taking into account also a predicted higher temperature there is a risk of higher frequency and abundance of potentially toxic cyanobacteria in lakes and they may stay longer during the season. Somewhat higher risk of loss of submerged macrophytes at increased N and phosphorus (P) loading and a shift to dominance of small-sized fish preying upon the key grazers on phytoplankton may also enhance the risk of lake shifts from clear to turbid in a warmer North European temperate climate. However, it must be emphasised that the prediction of N transport and thus effects is uncertain as the prediction of regional precipitation and changes in land-use is uncertain. By contrast, N loading is expected to decline in warm temperate and arid climates. However, in warm arid lakes much higher N concentrations are currently observed despite reduced external loading. This is Handling editor:
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