Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin

Andersen, Hans Estrup; Kronvang, Brian; Larsen, Søren E.; Hoffmann, Carl Christian; Jensen, Torben Strange; Rasmussen, Erik K.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.036

Cited by 144 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This technique, where the bias of precipitation is assumed to be fractionally the same for present-day climate and future climate simulations, is widely known as the delta change method (e.g. Andersen et al, 2006). For studying the change in the mean precipitation between the two periods, a two-sided t-test was applied to the data, with a 5% significance level (Von Storch and Zwiers, 1999).…”

Section: Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing season precipitation in Finland under recent and projected climate

Ylhäisi

Tietäväinen

Peltonen‐Sainio

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The past and projected future precipitation sum in May-September for two areas in Finland, one located in the south-west (SW) and the other in the north-east (NE), is studied using 13 regional climate simulations and three observational datasets. The conditions in the present-day climate for agricultural crop production are far more favourable in the south-western part of the country than the more continental north-eastern Finland. Based on a new high-resolution observational precipitation dataset for Finland (FMI grid), with a resolution of 10×10 km, the only statistically significant past long-term precipitation tendencies in the two study regions are positive. Differences between FMI grid and two other observational datasets during 1961-2000 are rather large in the NE, whereas in the SW the datasets agree better. Observational uncertainties stem from the interpolation and sampling errors. The projected increases in precipitation in the early stage of the growing season would be most favourable for agricultural productivity, but the projected increases in August and September might be harmful. Model projections for the future indicate a statistically significant increase in precipitation for most of the growing season by 2100, but the distribution of precipitation within the growing season is not necessarily the most optimal.

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Section: Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing season precipitation in Finland under recent and projected climate

Ylhäisi

Tietäväinen

Peltonen‐Sainio

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…As the ecological status of surface waters depends on the nutrient loadings and the seasonality in nutrient loadings, water quality monitoring programs should provide the necessary data to calculate and simulate these by coupled groundwater and surface water models, not least when possible climate change impacts have to be assessed (Andersen et al, 2006;Sonnenborg et al, 2012). In addition, reliable models and design of efficient monitoring programs for assessment of groundwater impacts on ecosystems require a sound understanding of the site specific hydrogeological, physical, and chemical conditions controlling the groundwater-surface water interaction (Dahl et al, 2007;Dahl and Hinsby, 2012).…”

Section: Implications For Integrated Monitoring and Modeling Of Watermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much research is currently undertaken in order to assess the projected climate change impact on the hydrological cycle globally. Previous work has indicated that winter precipitation and hence nutrient loadings to coastal waters may increase in Denmark, which is located in the western Baltic Sea (Andersen et al, 2006;Jeppesen et al, 2009Jeppesen et al, , 2011Aquarius, 2011;Sonnenborg et al, 2012), and in the Baltic Sea in general (Hagg et al, 2010), although significant uncertainties exist, e.g. due to changes in crops and farming practices (Olesen et al, 2007).…”

Section: Climate Change Impact On N and P Loadings To Coastal Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threshold values and management options for nutrients in a catchment of a temperate estuary with poor ecological status

Hinsby

Markager

Kronvang

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.Intensive farming has severe impacts on the chemical status of groundwater and streams and consequently on the ecological status of dependent ecosystems. Eutrophication is a widespread problem in lakes and marine waters. Common problems are hypoxia, algal blooms, fish kills, and loss of water clarity, underwater vegetation, biodiversity and recreational value. In this paper we evaluate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations of groundwater and surface water in a coastal catchment, the loadings and sources of N and P, and their effect on the ecological status of an estuary. We calculate the necessary reductions in N and P loadings to the estuary for obtaining a good ecological status, which we define based on the number of days with N and P limitation, and the corresponding stream and groundwater threshold values assuming two different management options. The calculations are performed by the combined use of empirical models and a physically based 3-D integrated hydrological model of the whole catchment. The assessment of the ecological status indicates that the N and P loads to the investigated estuary should be reduced to levels corresponding to 52 and 56 % of the current loads, respectively, to restore good ecological status. Model estimates show that threshold total N (TN) concentrations should be in the range of 2.9 to 3.1 mg l −1 in inlet freshwater (streams) to Horsens estuary and 6.0 to 9.3 mg l −1 in shallow aerobic groundwater (∼ 27-41 mg l −1 of nitrate), depending on the management measures implemented in the catchment. The situation for total P (TP) is more complex, but data indicate that groundwater threshold values are not needed. The stream threshold value for TP to Horsens estuary for the selected management options is 0.084 mg l −1 . Regional climate models project increasing winter precipitation and runoff in the investigated region resulting in increasing runoff and nutrient loads to the Horsens estuary and many other coastal waters if present land use and farming practices continue. Hence, lower threshold values are required in many coastal catchments in the future to ensure good status of water bodies and ecosystems.

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“…Global change on European river basins may lead to a disruption of the biogeochemical status of river as already 8 predicted for nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (Andersen et al, 2006;Hadjikakou et al, 2011;Wilson 9 and Weng, 2011). Despite the significant concern no study deals with the modelling of the global change 10 influence on endocrine disruptor concentrations in surface water.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%