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A short-term reliability evaluation is used for power stations, where each power generating unit is presented by a multi-state Markov model. The main obstacle for reliability evaluation in such a case is a ''curse of dimensionality''-a great (huge) number of states of entire power station that should be analyzed. A modern approach is proposed based on using Lz-transform that drastically simplifies computation. The proposed approach is useful for power system security analysis and short-term operating decisions. In order to illustrate the proposed approach, the short-term reliability evaluation for a power station with different coal fired generating units is presented.

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This paper presents a reliability analysis of a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant. A Multi-state Markov model is introduced for a two-shaft CCGT where combustion turbine and steam turbine are coupled to a single generator. The model is a suitable representation for both base load unit and intermittent operating unit. By using the model, such reliability characteristics as Forced Outage Rate, Equivalent Forced Outage Rate, etc. can be easily calculated. Sensitivity analysis for reliability data uncertainty is also provided. The numerical example based on real world combined-cycle power plant is presented in order to illustrate the model application.

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