The result of the accuracy by using cross-correlation matrix between the LULC model in 2015 with the LULC reference in 2015 is 75.88 %. The dynamics of LULC changes showed that area-class forest, dry land, paddy fields and shrubbery would be expected to experience an area decreases in the extent from the year 2015 to 2050, with the rate of change in average: 10.52, 13.22, 14.49 and 1.15 ha/year, respectively. Meanwhile, the area-class bare soil, plantation, settlement and water body would be expected to experience an area increases, with the rate of change in average: 6.79, 11.14, 11.49 and 9.7 ha/year, respectively. Furthermore, flood damage assessment can be calculated by estimating LULC area affected by the flood, which is determined based on the overlay between LULC maps from the result of Markov-CA with flood maps from the result of Monte Carlo algorithm. Under current conditions, estimated flood damage exposure to extreme flood events with return periods of 100 years for the water level scenario Hc = 3 m and Hc = 5 m is more than €520 and €958 million, respectively.

In Indonesia, flooding is one of the natural hazards that often occurs during the rainy season. Surface runoff coefficient values are an essential indicator of the supply of regional water resources. The smaller the surface runoff value, the greater the water storage in the ground, and the smaller surface was running water. This study analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of the estimated surface runoff caused by land use/land cover changes in the upstream Citarum watershed. The study area is located in the upstream Citarum watershed, West Java, Indonesia. The site has a long history of flooding and various complex environmental problems. The geographic Information System method was used as a tool in analyzing the spatially and temporally. The research result shows that there has been a change in land cover in several periods of the year in the Citarum upstream watershed. The occurrence of the LULC phenomenon positively affects the surface runoff coefficient. The increasing area of Built land and plantation in the Citarum upstream watershed will further increase the surface runoff coefficient and, in the end, will potentially increase the surface runoff and contribute to flooding in the Bandung basin. This study results can be used to provide input in determining the direction and policies for watershed management, taking into account the varying characteristics of each subwatershed.

No abstract

No abstract