Key Points Question Does public sentiment of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine safety align with spontaneous HPV vaccine adverse event reporting data? Findings This cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 to 2018 National Immunization Survey indicates a 79.9% increase in the proportion of parents who refused the HPV vaccine for their adolescents due to safety concerns. In contrast, estimates from the national vaccine safety surveillance system found that the HPV vaccine adverse event reporting rate per 100 000 doses distributed decreased from 44.7 in 2015 to 29.4 in 2018. Meaning These findings suggest an urgent need to combat safety concerns about the HPV vaccine in the US.

IMPORTANCE Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising among men in the US. Comprehensive assessments of nationwide trends in OPC incidence and mortality by demographics, tumor characteristics at diagnosis, and geography are lacking.OBJECTIVE We examined secular trends in OPC incidence and mortality rates in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia (DC). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSIn this cross-sectional study, we used the US Cancer Statistics data set to examine OPC incidence trends from 2001 through 2017. Observed and incidence-based mortality trends were evaluated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics and Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program, respectively. Data analysis was conducted from January to April 2021.RESULTS Nationwide, 260 182 OPC cases were identified; 209 297 (80%) occurred in men, 168 674 (65%) with regional stage, and 142 068 (55%) in the Southeast and Midwest regions, during 2001 to 2017. Incidence of OPC increased nationally 2.7% per year among men, with a notable (over 3% per year) rise among non-Hispanic White men and in men aged 65 years and older. Overall, among women, the annual percentage change was 0.5% (95% CI, −0.28% to 1.22%). Among men, with a 3.1% per year rise (95% CI, 2.4% to 3.8%), regional-stage OPC incidence increased nearly 2-fold. Among women, regional-stage OPC incidence increased 1.0% per year (95% CI, 0.3% to 1.7%). Among men, OPC incidence increased in all states and regions except Alaska, DC, and Wyoming. Among men, the most pronounced increases (more than 3.5% per year) were clustered in the Southeast and Midwest regions. Among women, a rise of more than 2% per year was also concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest regions. Among men, OPC incidence-based mortality increased 2.1% per year (95% CI, 1.0% to 3.2%) overall in recent years (from 2006 to 2017). In contrast, among women, the annual percentage change in OPC incidence-based mortality was −1.2% (95% CI, −2.5% to 0.1%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThe findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that the incidence of OPC has continued to increase nationally among men in the US, with rapid increases among the elderly population. The notable rise in regional-stage OPC and the concurrent recent rise in mortality among men is troubling and calls for urgent improvements in prevention. Distinct geographic patterns with notable rises in the Midwest and Southeast regions imply the need for improved and targeted prevention as well as future studies to understand etiological reasons for geographic disparities.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) associated anal and oropharyngeal cancer incidence has increased in recent years among US women. However, trends in incidence and burden (annual number of cases) of non-cervical HPV-associated cancers relative to cervical cancer remain unclear. Using the 2001-2017 US cancer statistics dataset, we evaluated contemporary incidence trends and burden (annual number of cases) of HPV-associated cancers among women by anatomic site, race/ethnicity, and age. Overall, cervical cancer incidence plateaued among White women but continued to decline among Blacks and Hispanics. Anal cancer incidence surpassed cervical cancer incidence among White women aged 65-74 years old (8.6 and 8.2 per 100,000 in 2015) and ≥75 years old (6.2 and 6.0 per 100,000 in 2014). The non-cervical cancer burden (n = 11,871) surpassed the cervical cancer burden (n = 11,527) in 2013. Development of efficacious screening strategies for non-cervical cancers and continued improvement in cervical cancer prevention is needed to combat HPV-associated cancers among women.

Background Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising rapidly among men in the United States of America (USA). We aimed to project the impact of maintaining the current HPV vaccination uptake and achieving 80% national (Healthy People) goal on OPC incidence and burden. Methods We developed an open-cohort micro-simulation model of OPC natural history among contemporary and future birth cohorts of men, accounting for sexual behaviors, population growth, aging, and herd immunity. We used data from nationally representative databases, cancer registries from all 50 states, large clinical trials, and literature. We evaluated the status quo scenario (the current HPV vaccination uptake remained stable) and alternative scenarios of improvements in uptake rates in adolescents (aged 9-17 years) and young adults (aged 18-26 years) by 2025 to achieve and maintain the 80% goal. The primary outcome was to project OPC incidence and burden from 2009 to 2100. We also assessed the impact of disruption in HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings OPC incidence is projected to rise until the mid-2030s, reaching the age-standardized incidence rate of 9·8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·5-10·1) per 100 000 men, with the peak annual burden of 23 850 (UI, 23 200-24 500) cases. Under the status quo scenario, HPV vaccination could prevent 124 000 (UI, 117 000-131 000) by 2060, 400 000 (UI, 384 000-416 000) by 2080, and 792 000 (UI, 763 000-821 000) by 2100 OPC cases among men. Achievement and maintenance of 80% coverage among adolescent girls only, adolescent girls and boys, and adolescents plus young adults could prevent an additional number of 100 000 (UI, 95 000-105 000), 118 000 (UI, 113 000-123 000), and 142 000 (UI, 136 000-148 000) male OPC cases by 2100. Delayed recovery of the HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 600 (UI, 580-620) to 6200 (UI, 5940-6460) additional male OPC cases by 2100, conditional on the decline in the extent of the national HPV vaccination coverage and potential delay in rebounding. Interpretation Oropharyngeal cancer burden is projected to rise among men in the USA. Nationwide efforts to achieve the HPV vaccination goal of 80% coverage should be a public health priority. Rapid recovery of the declined HPV vaccination uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic is also crucial to prevent future excess OPC burden. Funding National Cancer Institute and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the USA