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Ever since the Mw7.4 Izmit earthquake in 1999, evaluation of seismic hazard associated with the last unbroken segments of the North Anatolian fault is capital. A strong controversy remains over whether Marmara fault segments are locked or are releasing strain aseismically. Using a Bayesian approach, we propose a preliminary probabilistic interseismic model constrained by published GPS data sets. The posterior mean model show that Ganos and Cinarcik segments are locked while creep is detected in the central portion of Marmara fault. Our analysis, however, reveals that creeping segments are associated with large model uncertainties, which mainly results from the sparsity of current geodetic observations. We then discuss how the GPS network can be improved to attain more reliable assessment of interseismic slip rates. With this purpose, we implement a network optimization procedure to identify the most favorable distribution of stations measuring strain accumulation in the Marmara Sea.

S eismic hazard and loss assessment are important phenomena to save human life. For this purpose, understanding the mechanism of the active fault under tectonic stress is still critical subject [1-2]. The active faults can move abruptly to release the strain accumulation and produce destructive earthquakes or slip continuously (aseismic fault creep) without produce earthquakes significantly. The sudden release of accumulated strain on locked active faults (earthquake) along active faults can be subdivided into four periods: interseismic, preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic. This sequence is called the earthquake cycle in the literature. On the contrary, faults

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is the major transform system that accommodates the westward movement of the relatively rigid Anatolian block with respect to Eurasia. Mitigating the hazard associated with devastating earthquakes requires understanding how the NAFZ accumulates and releases the potential energy of elastic deformation both in space and in time.In this study, we focus on the central bend of the NAFZ where the strike of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) changes from N75 • to N105 • within less than 100 km, and where a secondary fault system veers southwards within the interior of Anatolia. We present interseismic velocity fields obtained from a Persistent-Scatterers (PS) Interferometric radar analysis of ERS and Envisat radar archives. Despite the high vegetation cover, the spatial density of measurements is high (∼10 PS/km 2 in average). Interseismic velocities presented below indicate a velocity change of ∼6-8 mm/yr along the satellite line-of-sight (LOS) mainly centred on the NAF surface trace, and are in good agreement with the GPS velocity field published previously. The observed deformation is accommodated within a zone of ∼20 to 30 km width, in this area where no surface creep has been reported, contrary to the Ismetpasa segment located ∼30 km to the west of this study zone. Although less conspicuous, ∼2-3 mm/yr (∼1 mm/yr along the LOS) of the total deformation seems to be localized along the Lacin Fault. The overall agreement with horizontal GPS measurements suggests that the vertical component of the ground deformation is minor. This is confirmed, over the western part of our study zone, by the 3-D estimation of the ground deformation from the combination of the GPSand the PS-mean velocity fields. However, a specific pattern of the PS velocity fields suggests that an area, enclosed between two faults with roughly south-north orientation, experiences uplift. The PS analyses of radar time-series both prior and posterior to the Izmit and Dûzce earthquakes indicate that these events did not induce detectable velocity changes in this central bend. The only temporal changes we identify are due to a moderate local earthquake (M w 5.7, 1996 August 14) whose precise location and coseismic deformation are determined here. Finally, we propose a model of slip-rate distribution at depth along the NAF from the joint inversion of the GPS and PS mean velocity fields. This model suggests a long-term slip-rate of ∼20 mm/yr for a rather uniform locking depth in the range of 15-20 km. However, the locking depth increases to ∼25-30 km in the section comprised between longitudes E34 • 20' and E34 • 50'. This lateral evolution is in general agreement with the earthquake distribution at depth from three different catalogues.

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Every man-made structure creates certain risks -dams are no exception. Most failures in man-made structures that have occurred could have been avoided if the structures' behaviour had been inspected, monitored, and analyzed continuously, and if proper corrective measures had been taken in a timely fashion. The DSI (The General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works), which is the institution responsible for dam safety, has long used surveying methods to measure the displacements of geodetic points as a part of dam monitoring policy. In this study, we focus on the dam's mechanical behaviour throughout a time period of more than 10 years. These study results have been derived from a separate, ongoing project that has monitored deformation on the Ataturk Dam and is now determining the water level of the reservoir. The project results show that although the dam body has become more stable and the water load behind the dam has increased, the rate of displacement of the dam has declined significantly. From these results, it can be seen that the reservoir water level can be increased evenly over time and that 542 m is the maximum water level of the dam's reservoir.