In order to develop a new and effective prediction system, the full potential of support vector machine (SVM) was explored by using an improved grey wolf optimization (GWO) strategy in this study. An improved GWO, IGWO, was first proposed to identify the most discriminative features for major prediction. In the proposed approach, particle swarm optimization (PSO) was firstly adopted to generate the diversified initial positions, and then GWO was used to update the current positions of population in the discrete searching space, thus getting the optimal feature subset for the better classification purpose based on SVM. The resultant methodology, IGWO-SVM, is rigorously examined based on the real-life data which includes a series of factors that influence the students' final decision to choose the specific major. To validate the proposed method, other metaheuristic based SVM methods including GWO based SVM, genetic algorithm based SVM, and particle swarm optimization-based SVM were used for comparison in terms of classification accuracy, AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), sensitivity, and specificity. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can be regarded as a promising success with the excellent classification accuracy, AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 87.36%, 0.8735, 85.37%, and 89.33%, respectively. Promisingly, the proposed methodology might serve as a new candidate of powerful tools for second major selection.
Deterioration of the urban thermal environment, especially in megacities with intensive populations and high densities of impervious surfaces, is a global issue resulting from rapid urbanization. The effects of landscape patterns on the urban thermal environment within a single area or single period have been well documented. Few studies, however, have explored whether the effects can be adapted to various cities at different urbanization stages. This paper investigated the variations of these effects in the five largest and highly urbanized megacities of China from 1990 to 2020 using various geospatial approaches, including concentric buffer analysis, correlation analysis, and hierarchical ridge regression models. The results indicated that the effects of landscape patterns on the urban thermal environment were greatly variable at different urbanization stages. Although landscape composition was more important than landscape configuration in determining the urban thermal environment, the standard coefficients of composition metrics continuously decreased from 1990 to 2020. However, configuration metrics, such as patch density, edge density, and shape complexity, could affect the land surface temperature (LST) to a larger extent at the highly urbanized stage. The urbanization process could also affect the cooling effect of urban green space. At the initial stage of rapid urban expansion in approximately 2000, urban green space explained the most variation in LST, with a value as high as 10%. To maximize the cooling effect, the spatial arrangement of urban green space should be highlighted in the region that was 10–15 km from the city center, where the mean LST experienced a significant decline. These results may provide deeper insights into improving the urban thermal environment by targeted strategies in optimizing landscape patterns for areas at different urbanization stages.
In this study, we aim to carry out a coupling analysis of the thermal landscape and environmental carrying capacity of urban expansion in Beijing over the past 35 years to provide scientific grounding for city planning. The paper proposes a conceptual framework and develops an integrated quantitative approach to the coupling analysis between urban expansion, the urban ecological environment, and the urban landscape, including the Urban Eco-Environment Carrying Capacity Index (ECI), Landscape Spatial Structure Index, Landscape Thermal Index (LTI), and Transitional Landscape Index (TLI, Markov Chain Model). Urban expansion has been essentially dominated by policy adjustments and has been further influenced by socioeconomic development, which has contributed to four outbreaks of urban sprawl in Beijing. Urban expansion is an essential factor affecting ecological environment change. The Olympic Games in 2008 was the turning point for the urban landscape. The rate of urban expansion and improvement of the ecological landscape all changed significantly around the year 2008. The urban thermal distribution pattern coincided well with the featured landscape patches, representing an obvious reflection of the difference between urban green spaces and construction, while high-temperature areas were abundant in the urban center. Urban expansion has a positive effect on the ecological environment and landscape pattern when it is fully matured and well planned. It is expected that, by 2025, the ecological environment of Beijing will be significantly improved, and the proportion of high-temperature areas will decrease.
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