Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over many individuals. On the conjecture that the accuracy of the group response is chiefly a consequence of aggregating across individuals, we constructed simple, heuristic approximations to the Bayesian model premised on the hypothesis that individuals have access merely to a sample of k instances drawn from the relevant distribution. The accuracy of the group response reported by Griffiths and Tenenbaum could be accounted for by supposing that individuals each utilize only two instances. Moreover, the variability of the group data is more consistent with this small-sample hypothesis than with the hypothesis that people utilize veridical or nearly veridical representations of the underlying prior distributions. Our analyses lead to a qualitatively different view of how individuals reason from past experience than the view espoused by Griffiths and Tenenbaum.
Abstract. Infusion pumps are commonly used in home/hospital care to inject drugs into a patient at programmable rates over time. However, in practice, a combination of faults including software errors, mechanical failures and human error can lead to catastrophic situations, causing death or serious harm to the patient. Dependability analysis techniques such as failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) can be used to predict the worst case outcomes of such faults and facilitate the development of remedies against them. In this paper, we present the use of model-checking to automate the dependability analysis of programmable, real-time medical devices. Our approach uses timed and hybrid automata to model the real-time operation of the medical device and its interactions with the care giver and the patient. Common failure modes arising from device failures and human error are modeled in our framework. Specifically, we use "mistake models" derived from human factor studies to model the effects of mistakes committed by the operator. We present a case-study involving an infusion pump used to manage pain through the infusion of analgesic drugs. The dynamics of analgesic drugs are modeled by empirically validated pharmacokinetic models. Using model checking, our technique can systematically explore numerous combinations of failures and characterize the worse case effects of these failures.
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