Changes in climate, land use, and population can increase annual and interannual variability of socioeconomic droughts in water-scarce regions. This study develops a probabilistic approach to improve characterization of sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships under shifts in water supply and demand conditions. A mixture Gamma-Generalized Pareto (Gamma-GPD) model is proposed to enhance characterization of both the non-extreme and extreme socioeconomic droughts. Subsequently, the mixture model is used to determine sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships, return period, amplification factor, and drought risk. The application of the framework is demonstrated for the City of Fort Collins (Colorado, USA) water supply system. The water demand and supply time series for the 1985–2065 are estimated using the Integrated Urban water Model (IUWM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), respectively, with climate forcing from statistically downscaled CMIP5 projections. The results from the case study indicate that the mixture model leads to enhanced estimation of sub-annual socioeconomic drought frequencies, particularly for extreme events. The probabilistic approach presented in this study provides a procedure to update sub-annual socioeconomic drought IDF curves while taking into account changes in water supply and demand conditions.
Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21st century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs data set ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with mountain, plateau, and basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change. Plain Language Summary Long-term changes in climate and water availability may lead to aridification or desertification of river basins. This study characterizes regional changes in the relationship between climate and water budgets of river basins across the continental United States over the 21st century. Results provide insights for decision-makers and water planners to prepare for changes in factors that influence the vulnerability to water shortage. In the CONUS, hydroclimatic parameters such as precipitation, temperature, evaporation, water yield (or total runoff), and potential evapotranspiration have been projected to change over the 21st century (Hay et al.
The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, social, economic, recreational, and aesthetic services. Future climate change can alter long-term hydroclimatic conditions of national forests and grasslands and lead to negative consequences. This study characterizes shifts in hydroclimatology and basin characteristics of US National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs) in response to climate change over the 21st century under the DRY, MIDDLE, and WET climate models with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. Climatic projections for three climate models ranging from the driest to wettest conditions were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset. Then, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to model hydrological responses of the selected future climates. Changes in regional hydroclimatic conditions of NFs and NGs were assessed by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. The Fu’s equation was applied to estimate changes in basin characteristics. The results indicate that NFs and NGs are likely to experience larger changes in basin characteristics compared to the average of the United States. In general, across the conterminous US, the NFs in mountainous regions are likely to have larger changes in hydroclimatic variables than NFs with lower elevation and NGs. Comparing Forest Service regions, Pacific Northwest, Intermountain, and Northern regions may have a less arid climate with lower freshwater availability. The Southwestern, Northern, Intermountain, and Rocky Mountain regions are likely to experience higher shifts in their basin characteristics. This study can help environmental scientists, and land and water managers improve future land management plans.
Water availability plays a critical role in a wide range of environmental, agricultural, industrial, and recreational activities. However, urbanization, population growth, and climate change may lead to shifts in water supply-demand conditions in river basins and culminate in short-term or chronic water shortages (Brown
While urban areas are being threatened by water shortage due to climate change and rapid population growth, effects of urban development patterns on future municipal water shortage are rarely investigated. We address this aspect of urbanization by assessing the impacts of sprawl vs. high-density patterns on future changes in the sub-annual water shortage intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships. The City of Fort Collins, Colorado, water supply system is chosen as a representative region that is rapidly developing over the last decades. The future water supply is estimated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven with a hot-dry climate model from the statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. Future water demand is projected using the Integrated Urban Water Model (IUWM) under both sprawl and high-density development patterns. The demonstration study reveals that urban areas under the sprawl development pattern are likely to experience water shortage events with higher intensity, duration, and frequency compared to the high-density pattern. Characterizing impacts of urban development patterns on future water shortage conditions is required for sustainable water management and smart urban growth and can help urban planners and water managers to develop an adaptive path to meet future water demand and decrease the vulnerability of municipal water supply systems to shortage.
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