[1] Pan evaporation (ET pan ) has decreased at 64% of pans in the conterminous U.S. over the past half-century. Comparing trends in ET pan and water budget-derived actual evapotranspiration (ET* a ), we observe the so-called ''Pan Evaporation Paradox,'' which we confirm is no more than a manifestation of the complementarity between actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) and potential evapotranspiration (ET p ). Examining trends in the components of ET a -the radiative energy and regional advective budgets-we show that both components must be considered together to explain the relationship between ET pan and ET* a .
Pan Evaporation ''Paradox''[2] The decreasing trend in ET pan observed in several countries [e.g., Chattopadhyay and Hulme, 1997;Peterson et al., 1995;Golubev et al., 2001;Lawrimore and Peterson, 2000] has captured attention, especially because the trend seems contrary to concurrent increasing trends in ET* a [Szilagyi et al., 2001], GCM-based estimates of evapotranspiration [Manabe, 1997], temperature [Folland and Karl, 2001], and precipitation and cloudiness [Karl et al., 1996]. All else equal, one expects evapotranspiration to increase with increases in temperature, and increasing evapotranspiration is necessary for increases in precipitation and cloudiness. This apparently contradictory behavior has led to talk of a ''pan evaporation paradox,'' which has been cited as evidence of ''climate alarmists' illusionary world of 'unprecedented' global warming'' [CSCDGC, 2001'unprecedented' global warming'' [CSCDGC, , 2003.[3] As theorized by Brutsaert and Parlange [1998], the solution to the paradox turns on the relation of ET pan to ET a . Depending on moisture availability in the region around the pan, these two variables may be nearly identical or very different, but they are nevertheless related: to understand the changes in ET pan , one must look at changes in ET a , or at the variables influencing ET a . As a recent editorial in Science [4] We examine trends in both ET pan and ET a for the conterminous U.S., obtaining estimates of ET a observationally (ET* a ) as precipitation minus runoff for 655 relatively undisturbed basins (Figure 1). We explain trends in ET* a as functions of combinations of trends in the radiative and advective budgets, and show that both components must be considered together; neither in isolation explains the paradoxical-seeming behavior observed in ET pan and ET* a .
Trends in ET pan[5] Limiting analyses to pans that reported at least 20 complete years or warm seasons (May through October) within the period 1950 -2002 produces sets of 1248 data at 44 pans from which annual trends were derived ( Figure 2a); and of 7064 data from 228 pans for warm-season trends (Figure 2b), where a datum is a single year's or season's observation at a single pan. The data were homogenized to account for abrupt shifts in ET pan measurements resulting from changes in pan location or type, or other changes that could otherwise artificially bias our results [Peterson et al., 1998]. (For each ET pan ...