This article "endogenizes" the copper supply, incorporating demand for mining-sector inputs represented by other goods in the economy (specifically, intermediate goods) and also energy into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) model for a sample of the 2003-2013 period. The model estimation reveals that a rise of 1% in the copper price leads to a 0.16% increase in gross domestic product (gdp) over five years. The main contribution of the study is to show that, if the mining sector is treated as integrated into the rest of the economy rather than being assumed to be an enclave, as it usually is, the effects of the copper price on the Chilean economy at least double.
RESUMENEn el presente artículo se "endogeniza" la oferta de cobre, incorporando la demanda de insumos del sector minero correspondiente a otros bienes de la economía -específicamente, bienes intermedios-y también energía, en un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico (dsge) para una muestra del período 2003-2013. La estimación del modelo revela que un aumento de un 1% del precio del cobre causa un incremento de un 0,16% en el producto interno bruto (pib) en cinco años. La principal contribución del estudio es mostrar que, si se considera al sector minero integrado al resto de la economía, en lugar de suponer -como es usual-que constituye un enclave, los efectos del precio del cobre en la economía chilena por lo menos se duplican. PALABRAS CLAVECiclos económicos, desarrollo económico, industria del cobre, minería, modelos econométricos, Chile CLASIFICACIÓN JEL
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