Expected climate change estimations for the Carpathian basin and especially, Hungary, are summarized for the 2071-2100 period on the basis of the results from the project PRUDENCE. Different regional climate models (RCMs) used 50 km as the horizontal spatial resolution, and evaluated the A2 and B2 global emission scenarios. Results suggest that in case of temperature, a warming trend is evident in the Carpathian basin. The largest warming is expected in summer. The expected change of annual total precipitation is not significant. However, significantly large and opposite trends are expected in different seasons. Seasonal precipitation amount is very likely to increase in winter, while it is expected to decrease in summer, which implies that the annual distribution of precipitation is expected to be restructured. The wettest summer season may become the driest (especially in case of A2 scenario), and the driest winter is expected to be the wettest by the end of the 21st century. It is evident that all these climate processes affect agricultural activity and disaster management strategy. In order to prepare for the changing climate conditions, results of this regional climate change analysis may serve as basic information.
Climate change is expected to have a vigorous impact on soils and ecosystems due to elevated temperature and changes in precipitation (amount and frequency), thereby altering biogeochemical and hydrological cycles. Several phenomena associated with climate change and anthropogenic activity affect soils indirectly via ecosystem functioning (such as higher atmospheric CO2 concentration and N deposition). Continuous interactions between climate and soils determine the transformation and transport processes. Long-term gradual changes in abiotic environmental factors alter naturally occurring soil forming processes by modifying the soil water regime, mineral composition evolution, and the rate of organic matter formation and degradation. The resulting physical and chemical soil properties play a fundamental role in the productivity and environmental quality of cultivated land, so it is crucial to evaluate the potential outcomes of climate change and soil interactions. This paper attempts to review the underlying long-term processes influenced by different aspects of climate change. When considering major soil forming factors (climate, parent material, living organisms, topography), especially climate, we put special attention to soil physical properties (soil structure and texture, and consequential changes in soil hydrothermal regime), soil chemical properties (e.g. cation exchange capacity, soil organic matter content as influenced by changes in environmental conditions) and soil degradation as a result of longterm soil physicochemical transformations. The temperate region, specifically the Carpathian Basin as a heterogeneous territory consisting of different climatic and soil zones from continental to mountainous, is used as an example to present potential changes and to assess the effect of climate change on soils. The altered physicochemical and biological properties of soils require accentuated scientific attention, particularly with respect to significant feedback processes to climate and soil services such as food security.
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