On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on "Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation". This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not those of the BIS.

This is aWorking Paper and the authors) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.

Household borrowing has grown considerably in many countries over the past two decades, both in absolute terms and relative to household incomes. Much of the increase can be viewed as a rational response by households to the effects of easing liquidity constraints on households, and lower inflation and borrowing rates. Regardless of whether the increase in debt is sustainable, it has important macroeconomic implications. The household sector will be more sensitive to shocks to interest rates and household incomes, and consumption spending will be more sensitive to changes in expectations of future income. The increased sensitivity will depend crucially on the distribution of debt across the household sector.

In recent years, an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy has been adopted in a number of industrial countries. This paper discusses the practical issues that have arisen under the operation of the new framework, and highlights five features of the framework: the assignment of the target, the interaction with other policy goals, the definition of the target, accountability and the role of inflation forecasts. The economic performance of the inflation targeting countries thus far is summarized.

The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short‐run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear specification. The paper also discusses the policy implications of convexity in the Phillips curve. These include the need for policy to be forward looking and to act pre‐emptively. Convexity provides a strong rationale for stabilization policy, and it reinforces the need for policy makers to proceed cautiously. It also implies that deep recessions may have only a marginally greater disinflationary impact than shallower ones, unless they induce large credibility bonuses.

We test whether the time-series positive correlation of inflation and intermarket relative price variability is also present in a cross-section of US cities. We find this correlation to be a robust empirical regularity: cities which have higher than average inflation also have higher than average relative price dispersion, ceteris paribus, This result holds for different periods of time, different classes of goods, and across different time horizons. Our results suggest that at least part of the relationship between inflation and relative price variability cannot be explained by moneta~factors.

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In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of the Australian state labour markets, focusing on the role of geographic labour mobility. We find that interstate migration does play an important role in reducing differences in labour market conditions between states, although permanent (or very persistent) differences between state unemployment rates remain. We also find that out-migration from a state resulting from a relative downturn in its labour market occurs slowly and steadily. Most of the migration takes place, on average, within four years, and the process of adjustment is complete after seven years.