The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.

Avian flu can acquire the capacity for airborne transmission between mammals without recombination in an intermediate host.

Replication in SARS-CoV-infected macaques of pneumonia similar to that in human beings with SARS, combined with the high prevalence of SARS-CoV infection in SARS patients, fulfill the criteria required to prove that SARS-CoV is the primary cause of SARS.

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Although extensive data exist on avian influenza in wild birds in North America, limited information is available from elsewhere, including Europe. Here, molecular diagnostic tools were employed for high-throughput surveillance of migratory birds, as an alternative to classical labor-intensive methods of virus isolation in eggs. This study included 36,809 samples from 323 bird species belonging to 18 orders, of which only 25 species of three orders were positive for influenza A virus. Information on species, locations, and timing is provided for all samples tested. Seven previously unknown host species for avian influenza virus were identified: barnacle goose, bean goose, brent goose, pink-footed goose, bewick's swan, common gull, and guillemot. Dabbling ducks were more frequently infected than other ducks and Anseriformes; this distinction was probably related to bird behavior rather than population sizes. Waders did not appear to play a role in the epidemiology of avian influenza in Europe, in contrast to the Americas. The high virus prevalence in ducks in Europe in spring as compared with North America could explain the differences in virus–host ecology between these continents. Most influenza A virus subtypes were detected in ducks, but H13 and H16 subtypes were detected primarily in gulls. Viruses of subtype H6 were more promiscuous in host range than other subtypes. Temporal and spatial variation in influenza virus prevalence in wild birds was observed, with influenza A virus prevalence varying by sampling location; this is probably related to migration patterns from northeast to southwest and a higher prevalence farther north along the flyways. We discuss the ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza A virus in wild birds in relation to host ecology and compare our results with published studies. These data are useful for designing new surveillance programs and are particularly relevant due to increased interest in avian influenza in wild birds.

Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of approximately 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002-2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

The molecular basis of antigenic drift was determined for the hemagglutinin (HA) of human influenza A/H3N2 virus. From 1968 to 2003, antigenic change was caused mainly by single amino acid substitutions, which occurred at only seven positions in HA immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Most of these substitutions were involved in antigenic change more than once. Equivalent positions were responsible for the recent antigenic changes of influenza B and A/H1N1 viruses. Substitution of a single amino acid at one of these positions substantially changed the virus-specific antibody response in infected ferrets. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that govern influenza viruses.