The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
This work presents a model-agnostic evaluation of four different models that estimate a disease’s basic reproduction number. The evaluation presented is twofold: first, the theory behind each of the models is reviewed and compared; then, each model is tested with eight impartial simulations. All scenarios were constructed in an experimental framework that allows each model to fulfill its assumptions and hence, obtain unbiased results for each case. Among these models is the one proposed by Thompson et al. (Epidemics 29:100356, 2019), i.e., a Bayesian estimation method well established in epidemiological practice. The other three models include a novel state-space method and two simulation-based approaches based on a Poisson infection process. The advantages and flaws of each model are discussed from both theoretical and practical standpoints. Finally, we present the evolution of Covid-19 outbreak in Colombia as a case study for computing the basic reproduction number with each one of the reviewed methods.
In this paper, we analyze the Individuals’ level of engagement on the labor market and the engagement heterogeneity across individuals in matters of labor market outcomes and the effectiveness of policy interventions. Emerging economies with highly segmented and distorted labor markets typically exhibit strong heterogeneity in labor market engagement. This paper develops an innovative index that measures individuals’ labor market engagement across three dimensions (preferences, intensity, and barriers) and across three labor market categories (employed, unemployed, and out-of-labor force) based on a recent special labor market survey in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Clustering individuals with similar engagement levels permit more effective targeting of labor market interventions. Findings confirm the strong heterogeneity of labor market engagement in the KSA and the index’s usefulness in the construction of differentiated policies across these clusters.
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