a economia brasileira puxada pela demanda agregada José lUis oReiRo lUCiano naKaBashi gUsTavo José de gUiMaRães e soUza* The Brazilian economy pulled by the aggregate demand. This article aims to present the demand-led growth theory and some empirical evidences for a demand-led growth regime in Brazil. First of all, we will do a brief review of the theory of demand led-growth, based in the seminal work of Kaldor (1988), for whom long-run growth is determined by the growth rate of consumption expenditures and the growth rate of exports. Based in the empirical methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), we run some econometric tests for the hypothesis of demand-led growth for Brazilian economy. The results of such tests shown that near of 85% of GDP growth in Brazil in the period 1991-2005 is explained by variables at the demand side of the economy. Besides that, based in the methodology developed by Ledesma and Thirwall (2002), we shown that natural rate of growth for Brazilian economy is endogenous, increasing during boom times. This means that appears to be no restrictions in the supply side of the economy for a faster growth of Brazilian economy. Finally, we argue that a necessary condition for a sustained growth of Brazilian economy is the adoption of a export-led growth model. For such it is necessary to put an end on the actual over-valuation of real exchange rate
In Brazil, the credit is characterized by excessive cost and limited supply and the main reason is the high default risk embedded in the spread. This paper concludes that the level of economic activity and the basic interest rate are factors with great influence on the default risk. Additionally, the paper also analyzes the reaction of the financial sector to structural risks, suggesting a new approach to credit risk. The assumption that credit risk is the result of an interactive process between banks and the economic environment is confirmed for the period from 2000 to 2006 in Brazil. The results also point to differences in the behavior of private and public banks
Para ser considerado Grau de Investimento, um país deve ser classificado como tal por pelo menos duas das três grandes agências de classificação de risco: Standard & Poor's, Moody's e Fitch. Construído a partir dos critérios adotados por essas agências, o modelo padrão identifica que doze variáveis em comum entre as metodologias proprietárias respondem por mais de 90% da variação dos ratings soberanos, para qualquer das três agências. Foram utilizadas as notas atribuídas a 200 nações no período de 15 anos (2000 a 2014). A abertura financeira parece ser favorável ao soberano, e Fitch e Moody's aparentam ser mais benevolentes nas análises de países industrializados.
Os componentes que respondem pelo elevado spread bancário no Brasil tem sido alvo de diversas análises nos últimos anos. As mudanças ocorridas no sistema financeiro brasileiro e o aumento da participação dos bancos públicos na economia provocaram elevação na concentração bancária no país. A maior parte das analises realizadas, buscando explicações para a formação do spread brasileiro, foram a partir de variações ex-ante, como sugere o nome, a partir das expectativas das instituições financeiras no momento da concessão do crédito, isto é, antes do resultado efetivo. Neste trabalho, os determinantes do spread bancário ex-post foram medidos pela margem financeira real dos principais bancos responsáveis pela intermediação financeira na economia brasileira, selecionando todas as instituições atuantes no Brasil com carteira comercial ativa no período analisado, 2000 a 2013 trimestralmente, chegando a um total de 222 instituições.
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