The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (ARIMAX) modeling studies of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are still rare. This study aims to explore whether incorporating air pollution and meteorological factors can improve the performance of a time series model in predicting PTB. We collected the monthly incidence of PTB, records of six air pollutants and six meteorological factors in Ningbo of China from January 2015 to December 2019. Then, we constructed the ARIMA, univariate ARIMAX, and multivariate ARIMAX models. The ARIMAX model incorporated ambient factors, while the ARIMA model did not. After prewhitening, the cross-correlation analysis showed that PTB incidence was related to air pollution and meteorological factors with a lag effect. Air pollution and meteorological factors also had a correlation. We found that the multivariate ARIMAX model incorporating both the ozone with 0-month lag and the atmospheric pressure with 11-month lag had the best performance for predicting the incidence of PTB in 2019, with the lowest fitted mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.9097% and test MAPE of 9.2643%. However, ARIMAX has limited improvement in prediction accuracy compared with the ARIMA model. Our study also suggests the role of protecting the environment and reducing pollutants in controlling PTB and other infectious diseases.
Temperature is increasingly understood to impact mental health. However, evidence of the long-term effect of temperature exposure on the risk of depressive symptoms is still scarce. Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study estimated associations between long-term apparent temperature, extreme temperature, and depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older adults. Results showed that a 1 °C increase or decrease from optimum apparent temperature (12.72 °C) was associated with a 2.7% (95% CI: 1.3%, 4.1%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 1.1%, 3.5%) increased risk of depressive symptoms, respectively. This study also found that each percent increase in annual change in ice days, cool nights, cool days, cold spell durations, and tropical nights was associated with higher risk of depressive symptoms, with HRs (95%CI) of 1.289 (1.114–1.491), 2.064 (1.507–2.825), 1.315 (1.061–1.631), 1.645 (1.306–2.072), and 1.344 (1.127–1.602), respectively. The results also indicated that people living in northern China have attenuated risk of low apparent temperature. Older people were also observed at higher risk relating to more cool nights. Middle-aged people, rural residents, and people with lower household income might have higher related risk of depressive symptoms due to increased tropical nights. Given the dual effect of climate change and global aging, these findings have great significance for policy making and adaptive strategies for long-term temperature and extreme temperature exposure.
This article investigates the impact of COVID-19 lockdown and regular epidemic prevention and control after lifting lockdown on asthma-related hospital and outpatient visits in Yichang. Data on the general outpatient department (GOPD), emergency department (ED) and intensive care unit (ICU) visits for asthma from 15 November 2019 to 21 May 2020 and the corresponding from 2018 to 2019 were collected from eight tertiary hospitals in municipal districts. The controlled interrupted time series (CITS) analysis was used to investigate the level and long-term trend changes of weekly asthma visits during lockdown and regular epidemic prevention and control, and stratified by type of visits and age. A total of 9347 asthma-related hospital and outpatient visits were analyzed. The CITS showed that after the implementation of lockdown, the weekly visits of asthma patients immediately decreased by 127.32 (p = 0.002), and the level of GOPD and ED/ICU visits immediately decreased significantly. After implementation of regular prevention, the level and trend of overall weekly visits changed insignificantly compared with the lockdown period. The weekly visits of GOPD adults immediately increased by 51.46 (p < 0.001), and the trend of ED/ICU adults decreased by 5.06 (p = 0.003) visits per week compared with lockdown period. The COVID-19 lockdown in Yichang was related to the decrease in hospital and outpatient visits for asthma. After the implementation of subsequent regular prevention and control measure, only the GOPD visits of adults increased compared with lockdown period.
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