Background: Improving health literacy is an important public health goal in many countries. Although many studies have suggested that low health literacy has adverse effects on an individual's health outcomes, confounding factors are often not accounted. This paper examines the interplay between health literacy and chronic disease prevention. Methods: A population-based sample of 8194 participants aged 15-69 years old in Ningbo were used from China's 2017 National Health Literacy Surveillance Data. We use multivariate regression analysis to disentangle the relationship between health literacy and chronic disease prevention. Results: We find the association between health literacy and the occurrence of the first chronic condition is attenuated after we adjust the results for age and education. This might arise because having one or more chronic conditions is associated with better knowledge about chronic diseases, thus improve their health literacy. More importantly, we find health literacy is associated with a reduction in the likelihood of having a comorbid condition. However, this protective effect is only found among urban residents, suggesting health literacy might be a key factor explaining the rural-urban disparity in health outcomes. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the important role of health literacy in preventing comorbidities instead of preventing the first chronic condition. Moreover, family support could help improve health literacy and result in beneficial effects on health.

Limited empirical work has been done to compare the effects that health knowledge and advice from doctors have on smokers’ intentions to quit. This paper examines the association of smokers’ intentions to quit with health knowledge, advice from doctors, and self-perceived health. A sample of 2509 smokers aged 15–69 years old in Ningbo was used from China’s National Health Literacy Surveillance survey, conducted in 2018 and 2019. Respondents were asked whether they agree smoking causes stroke, heart attack, lung cancer; and heart diseases in adults, lung illnesses in children, and lung cancer in adults, by secondhand smoke, respectively. Using the logistic model, we found that knowing that smoking causes stroke and lung cancer more than doubles the odds of one’s intention to quit (OR = 2.705, p < 0.01), the effect of which is much greater than knowing that smoking causes lung cancer only (OR = 1.795, p < 0.01). Doctors’ advice to quit is more important than health knowledge, in terms of predicting smokers’ past cessation behaviours. In addition, smokers’ self-perceived health is negatively associated with their decisions to quit. This paper highlights that more resources should be directed towards training health care providers to advise smokers to quit, which might be more effective than health education alone.

We evaluate the impacts that health supporting environments have on residents’ health and well-being. Using a stratified multi-stage sampling method, we select a sample of 12,360 permanent adult residents aged 15–69, and collect information on their health literacy level, as well as their demographic background and health. This individual level data is then merged with the administrative health supporting environment data. More than two thirds of residents self-reported having good/excellent health, and the percent of adults living in communities with healthy parks, healthy trails, and healthy huts in their community is 23 percent, 43 percent, and 25 percent, respectively. Controlling for a series of confounding factors at the community and individual levels, we find that healthy parks and healthy trails are positively correlated with self-reported health, which increases the probability of self-reporting good health by 2.0 percentage points (p < 0.10) and 6.0 percentage points (p < 0.01), respectively. Access to healthy huts is negatively associated with self-reported health, decreasing the probability of self-reporting good health by 5.0 percentage points (p < 0.01). Health literacy plays a role in moderating the effect of health parks, and a positive effect is more likely to be observed among adults with lower health literacy. Health supporting environments may play a role in reducing the likelihood of undiagnosed diseases and changing residents’ lifestyles, which promotes the health and well-being of residents, especially among those with inadequate health literacy.

The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (ARIMAX) modeling studies of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are still rare. This study aims to explore whether incorporating air pollution and meteorological factors can improve the performance of a time series model in predicting PTB. We collected the monthly incidence of PTB, records of six air pollutants and six meteorological factors in Ningbo of China from January 2015 to December 2019. Then, we constructed the ARIMA, univariate ARIMAX, and multivariate ARIMAX models. The ARIMAX model incorporated ambient factors, while the ARIMA model did not. After prewhitening, the cross-correlation analysis showed that PTB incidence was related to air pollution and meteorological factors with a lag effect. Air pollution and meteorological factors also had a correlation. We found that the multivariate ARIMAX model incorporating both the ozone with 0-month lag and the atmospheric pressure with 11-month lag had the best performance for predicting the incidence of PTB in 2019, with the lowest fitted mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.9097% and test MAPE of 9.2643%. However, ARIMAX has limited improvement in prediction accuracy compared with the ARIMA model. Our study also suggests the role of protecting the environment and reducing pollutants in controlling PTB and other infectious diseases.

Background Limited health literacy is a public health challenge contributing to the rising health care costs. We assess the economic costs of limited health literacy in China using data from the National Health Literacy Surveillance survey. Methods Our data includes a sample of 6316 residents aged 15–69 years old living in Ningbo, China, in 2019. We use box plots to examine the distribution of out-of-pocket health expenditure by the level of health literacy. We then use the estimates from a two-part model to assess the contribution of limited health literacy to individual medical spending and the aggregate health expenditure at different levels of health literacy for the adult population in Ningbo. Results Medical costs of limited health literacy are about 10% (177 CNY or about 25 USD) of the annual medical expense of a resident aged 15–69 living in Ningbo. The medical cost of limited health literacy is greater among the rural, female, and older groups than others. If the proportion of people with adequate health literacy increases from 22 to 30% (the target level by 2030), the aggregate out-of-pocket health expenditure in Ningbo will decrease by 100 million CNY (14 million USD), or 0.88% of the 2019 Ningbo government expenditure on health care. Conclusions This paper highlights the direct and indirect economic costs associated with limited health literacy. The results should help policymakers evaluate the cost-effectiveness of relevant programs that aim to improve residents’ health literacy.