Studying the impact of climate variability is important for the rational utilization of water resources, especially in the case of intensified global climate variability. Climate variability can be caused by natural climate variability or human-caused climate variability. The analysis of Jinghe River Basin (JRB) may not be comprehensive because few studies have concentrated on natural climate variability.Therefore, the primary goal is to explore the impact of natural climate variability on runoff. A modified Mann-Kendall test method was adopted to analyze the aberrance point to determine the natural condition period during which runoff was only influenced by natural climate variability. Then, the Monte Carlo method was employed to extract segments of monthly runoff in the natural condition period and combine them to construct a long series to reduce the instability. Results indicate that the percentage of runoff variability affected by natural climate variability is 30.52% at a confidence level of 95%. Next, a topography-based hydrological model and climate elasticity method were used to simulate runoff after the aberrance point without considering the impact caused by local interference. Through a comparison of the measured and simulated runoff, we discovered that local interference has the greatest impact on runoff in the JRB.Key words | climate elasticity method, Monte Carlo method, natural climate variability, topography-based hydrological model 344
The prediction of the influence of reservoir impoundment on water quality and phytoplankton community is the basis of ecological compensation or restoration. The aim of the current study was to predict the effects of reservoir impoundment on phytoplankton and shoreline vegetation communities using the space-time substitution method. The Huangjinxia Reservoir under construction on the Han River was selected as the research object. The space-time substitution method indicated that the average values of the total phosphorus (TP) and ammonia (NH4+-N) increased from 0.049 and 0.279 mg L−1 to 0.139 and 1.132 mg L−1, respectively, after reservoir impoundment. The percentage of diatom biomass exceeded 95% before the reservoir impoundment. However, it was gradually decreased to 75% after the reservoir impoundment. Meanwhile, the biomass of Chlorophyta, Cryptophyta and Pyrrophyta increased significantly, accounting for 32, 20 and 13% of the total biomass, respectively, after reservoir impoundment. Cynodon dactylon (65.3%), Polygonum hydropiper (51.7%) and Aster subulatus (50.3%) were the dominant shoreline vegetation before the reservoir impoundment, whereas after the reservoir impoundment, the dominant species shifted to Alternanthera philoxeroides (62.3%), Lobelia chinensis (55.7%) and C. dactylon (53.9%). Our results suggested that the percentage of bloom-forming phytoplankton would gradually increase after the reservoir impoundment. In addition, A. philoxeroides, C. dactylon and L. chinensis would be the plants suitable for living in the shoreline of reservoirs in this area.
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