This paper applies the nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index approach to estimate total factor productivity growth, efficiency change and the rate of technological progress from 1979 to 2003. This is done to conduct analysis on the total factor productivity of China's provincial economy. Analysis on the evolution of distribution dynamics of relative labor productivity, relative total factor productivity, relative efficiency and relative technological progress is done by using kernel density estimation for the period from 1979 to 2003 in 29 provinces of China. Our analysis indicates that disparities of provincial economic growth are large and have been increasing owing to the relatively large and increasing disparities of total factor productivity growth especially the rate of technological progress.
The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov‐switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992–2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre‐1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre‐1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.
在税收能力和税收努力的理论框架下,分析中国税收高速增长的源泉,可以发 现,在分税制改革后,中国税收长时间高速增长的原因主要表现在三个方面:分税制 的税收分权契约性质具有强烈的税收激励作用;间接税的制度设计放大了纳税人的纳 税能力;我国正处于"税收增长红利"集中释放期。未来第一种因素的作用将减弱, 第二种因素的作用部分消失,第三种因素的作用依旧存在。从长期看,由于税收增长 红利仍将持续很长一段时期,税收仍可能保持较高速度的增长。 关键词:税收增长 税收分权 税收能力 税收努力 An analysis of the dynamics of the rapid growth of tax revenue in China within the framework of tax capacity and tax effort reveals three major drivers following the tax sharing reform. First, the nature of the decentralization contract under the tax sharing system provides strong incentives for taxation. Second, the system of indirect taxes boosts taxpayers' taxable capacity. And third, China is enjoying the intensively present tax growth dividend. In the future, the first factor will diminish; the second factor will partially cease functioning; and the third factor will remain constant. Over the long term, the tax growth dividend will be long lasting and tax revenue will keep growing at a high speed.
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