Introduction To date, no national epidemiological data of systemic lupus erythematosus are available in Indonesia. Objective We aimed to demonstrate clinical characteristics of systemic lupus erythematosus patients of the Dr Hasan Sadikin General Hospital, one of Indonesia's top tertiary-referral hospitals. Method We reviewed retrospective cohort data from the Hasan Sadikin Lupus Registry, which was created in January 2016. Initial retrospective data were collected from the medical records of systemic lupus erythematosus patients from 2008 to 2015 and enhanced the cohort data from January 2016 to December 2017. The records were analysed for age, sex, clinical manifestations, comorbidity, treatment and outcome. Results Of 813 patients, 95.6% were females. Mean age at diagnosis was 27.7 ± 9.4 years, with a mean disease duration of 76.5 ± 53.1 months. Major clinical manifestations were arthritis (75.5%) and malar rash (68.3%). The majority of patients received steroid treatment, beside chloroquine and azathioprine. In total, 93 patients (11.4%) developed tuberculosis, 522 patients (64.2%) had routine follow-up and 66 patients (8.1%) died. Infection was the most common cause of death (36.4%). Conclusion Arthritis and malar rash were the most commonly encountered clinical manifestations in the Hasan Sadikin Lupus Registry. Tuberculosis incidence in systemic lupus erythematosus patients was high, as was the mortality rate of lupus.

Background Previous studies have identified systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), but data from TB endemic countries are still relatively scarce. We examined TB in a large cohort of SLE patients in Indonesia. Methods All patients registered in a lupus registry of the top-referral hospital for West-Java between 2008 and 2020 were included. Data on SLE characteristics and treatment were retrieved from the registry, and data on TB diagnosis, localization and outcome were extracted from medical records. Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine risk factors for development of TB. Results Among 1278 SLE patients followed over a total of 4804 patient years, 131 patients experienced 138 episodes of TB, a median 2 years (IQR 0.6–5.4) after diagnosis of SLE. A total of 113 patients (81.9%) had pulmonary and 61 (44.2%) had extra-pulmonary involvement, with disseminated disease in 26 of 138 episodes (18.8%), and 13 of 131 patients (9.9%) died from TB. The estimated TB incidence was 2,873 cases per 100,000 person years. In multivariate cox regression analysis, development of TB was associated with household TB contact (HR 7.20; 95%CI 4.05-12.80), pulse methylprednisolone therapy (HR 1.64; 95%CI 1.01-2.67) and age ≤ 25 years old at SLE diagnosis (HR 1.54; 95%CI 1.00-2.35). Conclusion There is a high burden of TB in SLE patients in this TB endemic setting, underlining the need for evaluation or implementation of TB preventive strategies.

Chromobacterium violaceum is a common environmental bacterium that rarely causes disease in humans but has a high fatality rate if it does. Due to the rarity of the cases, clinicians are often unaware of the rapid progression of C. violaceum infection and its unexpected antibiotic resistance pattern, which contribute to the failure of patient management. Our review provides the clinical characteristics, possible sources of exposure, and comorbidities and determines factors associated with survival. We gathered information on 132 cases of C. violaceum causing disease in humans published between 1953 and 2020. Patients were predominantly male with a median age of 17.5, interquartile range (IQR) of 5.0-40.0 years, and a third of them were known to have immune deficiencies or comorbidities. Portals of entry were mainly through a wound in the leg and feet (28.0%), the torso (8.5%), or hands and arms (6.8%). It is not uncommon to acquire infection through unintended contact with contaminated water or dust through the mouth or inhalation. The median incubation period is 4.0 days (IQR 2.0-8.0 days) with a duration of clinical course of 17.5 days (IQR 8.0-30.8 days). The high rate of positive blood cultures (56.1%) and abscesses in internal organs (36.4%) shows the significant severity of this disease. Sepsis and Bacteremia were related to mortality with a risk ratio (RR) of 5.20 (95% CI, 0.831-32.58) and 2.14 (95% CI, 1.05-4.36), respectively. Appropriate antibiotic use prevented death at a RR 0.33 (95% CI, 0.21-0.52). Most patients who recovered and survived were treated with aminoglycosides, fluoroquinolones and carbapenems. This review shows the malignant nature of C. violaceum infection and the need for clinicians to be aware and provide prompt source management for patients. Appropriate empiric and targeted antibiotic regiment guided by susceptibility test results is of vital importance.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the indicators used to measure the inflation and deflation of a group of goods and services in general. Forecasting CPI to be important as early detection in facing price hikes. This study uses the SSA and SARIMA. SARIMA a parametric model that requires various assumptions while SSA is a nonparametric technique that is free from a variety of assumptions, but both methods require seasonal patterns in the data. Based on the research results, methods of SSA with length window(L) of 24 and a grouping of 4 (1 group of seasonal and 3 groups of trends) and SARIMA models of order (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 is the most accurate and reliable models in forecasting CPI to the value Padang Sidempuan City. Forecasting CPI Padang Sidempuan City for the next 5 months with SSA method and SARIMA (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 shows the pattern of a trend is likely to increase but forecasting the 5th month with SSA method showed a surge in the value of CPI high or high inflation will occur.

AbstrakMetode Holt-Winters digunakan untuk memodelkan data dengan pola musiman, baik mengandung trend maupun tidak. Terdapat dua metode peramalan dalam Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), yaitu metode rekuren (R-forecasting) dan metode vektor (V-forecasting). Metode rekuren melakukan kontinuasi secara langsung (dengan bantuan LRF), sedangkan metode vektor berhubungan dengan L-continuation. Perbedaan metode tentunya memberikan perbedaan dalam keakuratan hasil ramalan. Untuk melihat perbedaan antara ketiga metode tersebut dilakukan dengan melihat perbandingan keakuratan dan keandalan hasil ramalan. Untuk mengukur ketepatan peramalan digunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan untuk mengukur keandalan hasil peramalan dilakukan dengan tracking signal. Aplikasi dilakukan pada produksi bawang merah Indonesia periode Januari 2006-Desember 2015. Peramalan kedua metode di SSA menggunakan window length L=39 dan grouping r=8. Dengan nilai α = 0.1, β= 0.001 dan γ=0.5, metode HoltWinters additive memberikan hasil yang lebih baik dengan MAPE 13,469% dibanding metode SSA. Kata kunci: Holt-Winters, MAPE, R-forecasting, SSA, V-forecasting AbstractThe Holt-Winters method is used to model data with seasonal patterns, whether trends or not. There are two methods of forecasting in Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely recurrent method (R-forecasting) and vector method (V-forecasting). The recurrent method performs continuous continuation (with the help of LRF), whereas the vector method corresponds to the Lcontinuation. Different methods of course make a difference in the accuracy of forecast results. To see the difference between the three methods is done by looking at the comparison of accuracy and reliability of forecast results. To measure the accuracy of forecasting used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and to measure the reliability of forecasting results is done by tracking signal. Applications are done on Indonesian red onion production from January 2006 to December 2015. Forecasting of both methods in SSA uses window length L = 39 and grouping r = 8. With α = 0.1, β = 0.001 and γ = 0.5, Holt-Winters additive method gives better result with MAPE 13,469% than SSA method.