a b s t r a c tIn this paper, a hybrid methodology based on Support Vector Regression for wind speed forecasting is proposed. Using the autoregressive model called Time Delay Coordinates, feature selection is performed by the Phase Space Reconstruction procedure. Then, a Support Vector Regression model is trained using univariate wind speed time series. Parameters of Support Vector Regression are tuned by a genetic algorithm. The proposed method is compared against the persistence model, and autoregressive models (AR, ARMA, and ARIMA) tuned by Akaike's Information Criterion and Ordinary Least Squares method. The stationary transformation of time series is also evaluated for the proposed method. Using historical wind speed data from the Mexican Wind Energy Technology Center (CERTE) located at La Ventosa, Oaxaca, M exico, the accuracy of the proposed forecasting method is evaluated for a whole range of short termforecasting horizons (from 1 to 24 h ahead). Results show that, forecasts made with our method are more accurate for medium (5e23 h ahead) short term WSF and WPF than those made with persistence and autoregressive models.

For millennia people have wondered what makes the living different from the non-living. Beginning in the mid-1980s, artificial life has studied living systems using a synthetic approach: build life in order to understand it better, be it by means of software, hardware, or wetware. This review provides a summary of the advances that led to the development of artificial life, its current research topics, and open problems and opportunities. We classify artificial life research into 14 themes: origins of life, autonomy, self-organization, adaptation (including evolution, development, and learning), ecology, artificial societies, behavior, computational biology, artificial chemistries, information, living technology, art, and philosophy. Being interdisciplinary, artificial life seems to be losing its boundaries and merging with other fields.

Abstract:We extend previously proposed measures of complexity, emergence, and self-organization to continuous distributions using differential entropy. Given that the measures were based on Shannon's information, the novel continuous complexity measures describe how a system's predictability changes in terms of the probability distribution parameters. This allows us to calculate the complexity of phenomena for which distributions are known. We find that a broad range of common parameters found in Gaussian and scale-free distributions present high complexity values. We also explore the relationship between our measure of complexity and information adaptation.

We present a set of Matlab/Octave functions to compute measures of emergence, self-organization, and complexity applied to discrete and continuous data. These measures are based on Shannon's information and differential entropy. Examples from different datasets and probability distributions are provided to show how to use our proposed code.

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Entropy is a key concept in the characterization of uncertainty for any given signal, and its extensions such as Spectral Entropy and Permutation Entropy. They have been used to measure the complexity of time series. However, these measures are subject to the discretization employed to study the states of the system, and identifying the relationship between complexity measures and the expected performance of the four selected forecasting methods that participate in the M4 Competition. This relationship allows the decision, in advance, of which algorithm is adequate. Therefore, in this paper, we found the relationships between entropy-based complexity framework and the forecasting error of four selected methods (Smyl, Theta, ARIMA, and ETS). Moreover, we present a framework extension based on the Emergence, Self-Organization, and Complexity paradigm. The experimentation with both synthetic and M4 Competition time series show that the feature space induced by complexities, visually constrains the forecasting method performance to specific regions; where the logarithm of its metric error is poorer, the Complexity based on the emergence and self-organization is maximal.

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In humans, individuals’ social setting determines which and how language is acquired. Social seclusion experiments show that sociality also guides vocal development in songbirds and marmoset monkeys, but absence of similar great ape data has been interpreted as support to saltational notions for language origin, even if such laboratorial protocols are unethical with great apes. Here we characterize the repertoire entropy of orangutan individuals and show that in the wild, different degrees of sociality across populations are associated with different ‘vocal personalities’ in the form of distinct regimes of alarm call variants. In high-density populations, individuals are vocally more original and acoustically unpredictable but new call variants are short lived, whereas individuals in low-density populations are more conformative and acoustically consistent but also exhibit more complex call repertoires. Findings provide non-invasive evidence that sociality predicts vocal phenotype in a wild great ape. They prove false hypotheses that discredit great apes as having hardwired vocal development programmes and non-plastic vocal behaviour. Social settings mould vocal output in hominids besides humans.