Cette étude concerne le système du currency board (CB) instauré en Estonie, Lituanie et Bulgarie. Le
CB est considéré comme la forme la plus extrême d'un régime de change fixe. La différence essentielle entre un régime de change fixe mais ajustable et un régime de CB se trouve dans la plus haute crédibilité de ce dernier. Voilà pourquoi l'auteur tente de faire une analyse comparative en termes de « crédibilité initiale », « crédibilité institutionnelle » et « crédibilité opérationnelle » des trois pays concernés. Les résultats montrent que le CB le plus crédible est celui de l'Estonie.
Classification JEL : F31, P24, P52
The experience with fixed but adjustable exchange rate systems in the Czech and Slovak republics is examined. How compatible was this system with the monetary policies practiced there? To answer this, several credibility tests were conducted to gauge the effects on inflation and interest rates in the two economies. In the dynamic environment of the economic transition, the use of a double intermediate objective to lower inflation can have positive effects only in the short run, but is doomed to failure in the long run. This helps explain the currency crises in each country and contributes to the debate about the viability of fixed but adjustable exchange rates.
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