In an unprecedented response to the rapid decline in wild tiger populations, the Heads of Government of the 13 tiger range countries endorsed the St. Petersburg Declaration in November 2010, pledging to double the wild tiger population. We conducted a landscape analysis of tiger habitat to determine if a recovery of such magnitude is possible. The reserves in 20 priority tiger landscapes can potentially support >10,000 tigers, almost thrice the current estimate. However, most core reserves where tigers breed are small and land-use change in rapidly developing Asia threatens to increase reserve and population isolation. Maintaining population viability and resilience will depend upon a landscape approach to manage tigers as metapopulations. Thus, both site-level protection and landscape-scale interventions to secure habitat corridors are simultaneous imperatives. Co-benefits, such as payment schemes for carbon and other ecosystem services, should be employed as strategies to mainstream landscape conservation in tiger habitat into development processes.

Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.

Many species have experienced dramatic declines over the past millennia due to the accelerated impact of human activity and climate change, but compelling evidence over such long‐term time scales is rare. China has a unique system archiving historical records of important social, meteorological, agricultural and biological events over the last three millennia. We derived historical species occurrences (0–2000 AD) based on a comprehensive review of literature. To detect the driving forces of range contraction, we used correlation and multiple regression to quantify the linear association between species range indices and climate variables (five temperature series and three precipitation series), as well as a human population size series. We also used a machine learning technique, random forest, to quantify the nonlinear effects of the climate variables and human population size. The southward retreat of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus and the rhinoceroses (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis, Rhinoceros unicornis, R. sondaicus) was closely associated with climate cooling and intensified human impact (represented by high population size), and the westward retreat of the giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca was associated with intensified human impact. One temperature series and human population size showed interactive effect on range shift of the Asian elephant and the rhinoceroses; the effect of temperature was positive at low population size, but negative at high population size. Our results imply that a higher temperature caused the northward or eastward range shift of the Asian elephant, the rhinoceroses and the giant panda, and currently this trend is impeded by human activities. We also illustrate how human activity and climate act synergistically to cause range contraction.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked climate has been known to be associated with several rodent species, but its effects on rodent community at both spatial and temporal scales are not well studied. In this study, we investigated the possible causal chain relating ENSO, precipitation, temperature, and vegetation index (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) to rodent abundance for 14 sympatric rodent species in 21 counties of semiarid grasslands in Inner Mongolia, China, from 1982 to 2006. We found that both precipitation and temperature showed a generally direct positive effect on rodent abundance in many species in the current year, but indirect effects that operate through NDVI in the current or following year could have a reverse effect on abundance. We described one ENSO-linked precipitation bottom-up chain and three ENSO-linked temperature bottom-up chains. These observed bottom-up links reveal that in El Niño years, or 1 year after La Niña years, or 2 years after El Niño years, ENSO-driven climate or vegetation factors tend to increase population abundances of many sympatric rodent species in this region. We also found time-lag effects and the life-history strategy (i.e., functional groups of hibernating behavior, activity rhythm, or food habits) also contribute to the observed complicated effects of SOI on precipitation, temperature, NDVI, and ultimately rodent abundance.

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard’s historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km2 of current range and 21,173.7 km2 of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km2of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally.

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Simple SummaryHumans and domestic dogs may alarm wild animals, and the extent of this can be measured using Flight Initiation Distance (FID). Golden marmots are preyed on by globally-endangered predators such as the snow leopard, and are baited by humans with dogs, potentially causing FID to increase. We measured FID in 72 marmots from four colonies in the Karakoram range, Pakistan. Marmots were approached by a person on foot with a leashed dog, and by a person on their own to compare FID between the two. Additionally, we recorded background signs of human activity, namely roads, and presence of people other than the experimenters. We measured other aspects of the environment that might have affected marmot behavior such as marmot group size and age/sex, how visible each colony was, and colony substrate. The dog caused greater FID than the person alone, and adult marmots nearer to roads showed greater FID. However, marmot age and colony substrate had more marked impacts on FID, which was also greater at lower elevations where there were clusters of human settlements and livestock pasture. Further research should be conducted to explore some of these effects further and to find out whether increased FID affects marmot survival and breeding success.AbstractHumans and dogs initiate measurable escape responses in wild animals including flight initiation distance (FID), with potentially negative consequences. Golden marmots are important prey for endangered carnivores and are subject to human persecution including via marmot baiting with dogs. We quantified FID at four marmot colonies (72 individuals) in the Karakoram range, Pakistan in response to approach by a pedestrian with a leashed dog versus approach by a pedestrian alone (i.e., a control). Additionally, we related FID to background variables of human activity, namely proximity to roads, and presence of other pedestrians in the vicinity of study sites during sampling. We also controlled for potential environmental and social covariates (e.g., group size, age and sex, and colony substrate). Dogs initiated greater FID than pedestrians alone, and there was evidence that roads increased FID. However, these effects were weaker than those of marmot age and colony substrate. FID was greater at lower elevations, but this may reflect the clustering in these zones of human settlements and livestock pasture. Further work is needed elucidate the importance of colony substrate (linked to ease of human persecution), the effect of settlements and pasture, and the impact of increased FID on marmot fitness.

We examined environmental and anthropogenic factors drive range loss in large mammals, using presence data of Amur tigers opportunistically collected between 2000 and 2012, and anthropogenic and environmental variables to model the distribution of the Amur tiger in northeastern China. Our results suggested that population distribution models of different subregions showed different habitat factors determining tiger population distribution patterns. Where farmland cover was over 50 km2 per pixel (196 km2), distance was within 15 km to the railway in Changbaishan and road density (length per pixel) increased in Wandashan, the relative probability of Amur tiger occurrence exhibited monotonic avoidance responses; however, where distance was within 150 km of the Sino‐Russia border, the occurrence probability of Amur tiger was relatively high. We analyzed the avoidance or preference responses of Amur tiger distribution to elevation, snow depth and Viewshed. Furthermore, different subregional models detected a variety of spatial autocorrelation distances due to different population clustering patterns. We found that spatial models significantly improved model fits for non‐spatial models and made more robust habitat suitability predications than that of non‐spatial models. Consequently, these findings provide useful guidance for habitat conservation and management.